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[学术文献 ] 美国“印太经济框架”的本质、影响及中国的应对策略 进入全文
东北亚论坛
2022年5月，美国总统拜登在日本东京宣布与印太地区的13个国家启动“印太经济框架”的谈判进程。“印太经济框架”作为美国开展印太区域经济合作新的制度体系，从本质上讲，是一份以美国利益优先的印太区域制度整合方案，是美国在印太地区开展对华竞争的行动纲领，其未来必将会对我国的海外市场、供应链稳定、区域数字经贸规则制定话语权以及区域各国制度整合等方面带来不确定性的影响。为应对“印太经济框架”的可能影响和挑战，我国应加快构建新发展格局，整合“一带一路”倡议和RCEP，推出区域数字规则的“中国方案”，构建我国跨国企业主导的区域供应链，以RCEP为抓手，推动区域制度整合。
[学术文献 ] 新型全球化的逻辑理路：历史生成、理论回响与实践演进 进入全文
河南大学学报(社会科学版)
在百年变局和世纪疫情的交织叠加中，传统的西式全球化已经不能适应人类社会发展的需要，推进代表新的生产力和生产关系发展要求的新型全球化成为引领全球化发展的新方向。新型全球化在当代的构建和演进有着严密的逻辑理路，其生成于动态发展的社会历史之中，其理论回响是对马克思世界历史理论的继承与发展，其实践演进是以“一带一路”为重要实践平台，秉持共商共建共享的原则，着力建设一个和平、繁荣、开放、绿色、创新、文明的世界。
[学术文献 ] Farm size limits agriculture's poverty reduction potential in Eastern India even with irrigation-led intensification 进入全文
Agricultural Systems
CONTEXT Millions of people living in the Eastern Gangetic Plains (EGP) of India engage in agriculture to support their livelihoods yet are income poor, and food and climate insecure. To address these challenges, policymakers and development programs invest in irrigation-led agricultural intensification. However, the evidence for agricultural intensification to lift farmers' incomes above the poverty line remains largely anecdotal. OBJECTIVE The main objective of this study is to use a large household survey (n = 15,572; rice: 8244, wheat: 7328; 2017/18) to assess the link between agricultural intensification and personal daily incomes from farming (FPDI) in the rice-wheat systems of the EGP – the dominant cropping system of the region. METHODS We use the Intensification Benefit Index (IBI), a measure that relates farm size and household size to FPDI, to assess how daily incomes from rice-wheat production change with irrigation-led intensification across the EGP. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Relative to the international poverty line of 1.90 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)$ day and accounting for variations in HH size in the analysis, we found that small farm sizes limit the potential for agricultural intensification from irrigation to transform the poverty status of households in the bottom three quartiles of the IBI. The estimated median FPDI of households with intensified systems in the bottom three quartiles is only 0.51 PPP$ day (a 0.15 PPP$ gain). The median FPDI increases to 2.10 PPP$ day for households in the upper quartile of the IBI distribution (a 0.30 PPP$ gain). Irrigation-led agricultural intensification of rice-wheat systems in the EGP may provide substantial benefits for resilience to climatic change and food security but achieving meaningful poverty reduction will require complementary investments.−1−1−1 SIGNIFICANCE Transforming the poverty status of most smallholder farmers in the EGP requires diversified portfolios of rural on- and off-farm income-generating opportunities. While bolstering food- and climate security, agronomic intervention programs should consider smallholders' limited monetary incentives to invest in intensification. Irrigation-led agricultural intensification programs and policies should explicitly account for the heterogeneity in household resources, irrigation levels, and degree of dependence on agricultural income.
[学术文献 ] 全球价值链嵌入对中国农产品出口贸易的影响研究 进入全文
价格月刊
全球化背景下，中国农业发展更多表现出全球价值链生产的特征。以全球价值链数据库收录的相关国家数据为基础，采用固定效应模型回归方法，对全球价值链与中国农产品出口贸易的影响关系及作用机制进行了研究。结果显示：全球价值链嵌入程度对中国农产品出口具有正向促进作用，嵌入程度越深、价值链越长越有利于中国农产品出口贸易；除此之外，外国劳动力与资本、汇率等变量对中国农产品出口的影响也呈现正相关系；以人均GDP衡量的市场规模对被解释变量的作用与预期相反，表现为负相关。根据研究结论，结合中国国情，提出了加大资金投入和政策支持力度，加快农业结构调整、做好优势农产品区域规划，积极应对农产品绿色贸易壁垒、实施绿色品牌战略，努力提高中国农业科研水平、引导农产品出口由数量型向质量型转变，制定农产品出口新战略、建立健全农产品贸易预警机制等对策建议。
[学术文献 ] The Russia-Ukraine war: Implications for global and regional food security and potential policy responses 进入全文
Global Food Security
This paper analyzes the implications of the Russian-Ukraine war on global and regional food security. We start with a global vulnerability analysis to identify most vulnerable regions and countries. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is particularly vulnerable to trade shocks because of its high food import dependence. Thus, we provide descriptive evidence characterizing how food systems and policies impact vulnerability to the price shock in selected MENA countries: Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen. Within these countries, we show that the crisis will differentially impact poor and non-poor households as well as rural and urban households. Although the absolute level of food insecurity may still be higher in rural areas where larger numbers of poor households are located, urban poor are likely to suffer most because of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and associated hikes in food prices, especially in those countries where social protection and food subsidies are missing. We review lessons from previous food crises and identify actions needed to take (and to avoid) to protect most vulnerable countries and households in the short-term while also highlighting long-term policy options to diversify food, fertilizer and energy production and trade.
[学术文献 ] 农产品贸易对农业绿色全要素生产率的空间溢出效应——基于农业产业集聚的调节作用 进入全文
中国农业资源与区划
[目的]发展绿色农业，是实现我国农业可持续发展与绿色转型的一个新发展模式，探究农产品贸易和农业产业集聚对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响，为我国农业绿色发展提供参考。[方法]基于新地理经济学，建立空间面板模型，利用2004—2020年中国31个省区市的面板数据，实证研究了农产品贸易对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响，以及农业产业集聚对上述影响的调节作用。[结果]全国及4大地区的农业绿色全要素生产率、农业技术进步和农业技术效率都呈上升发展趋势；全国层面看，农产品贸易对农业绿色全要素生产率和农业技术进步有显著的倒“U”型影响，对农业技术效率有显著的“U”型影响；而邻近地区的农产品贸易水平只会对本地的农业技术进步有“U”型影响，对农业绿色全要素生产率和农业技术效率没有显著影响；农产品贸易对农业绿色全要素生产率、农业技术进步和农业技术效率在4大地区、不同农产品贸易水平和不同农产品贸易结构地区存在异质性影响；农业产业集聚的调节作用在不同区域也存在异质性。[结论]要推动农产品贸易由“数量增加”向“质量提升”转变，围绕提升农业绿色全要素生产率实施农产品贸易非均衡发展策略，同时倡导适度规模经营，更好地发挥农业产业集聚的绿色发展功能。
