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[学术文献 ] 全球农业贸易治理与中国粮食安全 进入全文
农业经济问题
粮食安全是“国之大者”。面对粮食消费需求刚性增长、资源环境承载力约束及生产成本上升的现实，国内粮食进口需求不断扩大，国际粮食市场供应与流通的稳定性已成为影响我国粮食安全的重要因素。然而，当前经济全球化遭遇逆流，现行多边贸易治理框架下存在的规则失宜、机制失灵、谈判失效等问题被不断放大，叠加以气象灾害、新冠疫情、俄乌冲突为代表的极端事件的持续发酵，全球农业贸易治理体系的公信力与有效性正经历前所未有的挑战。面对日趋复杂的外部市场环境和改革滞后的贸易治理体系，我国应在坚持遵循共商共建共享原则的基础上，努力提升制度型开放水平，积极维护多边机制正常运转、大力推动农业贸易规则改革、加强区域农业经贸合作、完善国际粮食风险防控机制，与各国一道共同构建更加完备有效的全球农业贸易治理体系，夯实粮食国际贸易基础，切实保障我国粮食安全。
[学术文献 ] 中国与“21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线地区农产品贸易结构分析 进入全文
经济问题探索
本文运用RCA指数、TCI指数、GL指数、BI指数和Thom＆Mc-Dowell指数，较为全面地分析了2009年至2021年中国与“一路”沿线地区农产品贸易结构。结果表明：自2009年以来，中国与“一路”沿线地区农产品贸易结构的问题逐渐显现，主要表现在进出口结构失衡，贸易逆差持续扩大；商品结构集中度偏高，以食品和活动物类为主；区域结构不合理，东盟地区所占比重过高。同时，双方依据比较优势展开贸易，逐渐形成有明显互补性的、以产业间贸易与产业内贸易并存的农产品贸易结构，其中双方农产品产业内贸易水平不断提高并且以垂直型产业内贸易为主。
[学术文献 ] 从RCEP到CPTPP：我国农产品贸易发展模拟研究——基于GTAP模型的分析 进入全文
当代经济
本文在对比分析RCEP、CPTPP农产品贸易规则的基础上，构建GTAP模型，分析CPTPP、RCEP生效、美韩加入CPTPP、中国加入CPTPP四种情景对各国农产品出口额、农产品进口额、农产品贸易收支以及国内农产品产出的影响。模拟结果显示，CPTPP生效、美韩加入CPTPP将会使我国农产品产出与出口减少，农产品贸易条件恶化；中国加入CPTPP与RCEP生效，将会改善我国农产品出口的贸易环境，增加产出。鉴于此，建议我国加快农产品加工产业升级，推动“一带一路”沿岸国家农产品贸易发展，深化RCEP，积极推进加入CPTPP，不断拓展农产品贸易环境。
[学术文献 ] The US farm credit system and agricultural development: Evidence from an early expansion, 1920–1940 进入全文
American Journal of Agricultural Economics
I explore the impact of the Production Credit Associations (PCAs), an arm of the early Farm Credit System, on agricultural yield and input use following the farm crisis of the 1920s. Like many low- and middle-income countries today, farmers in the early 20th century United States found it difficult to access credit. The PCAs were established in 1933 and significantly increased the supply of short-term credit available to farmers. Using distance from the serving PCA as a proxy for credit access, I find that counties within 30 km of a PCA had 7% to 14% higher crop revenue per acre and 9% higher corn yields than counties more than 60 km from a PCA. These areas also had a small but statistically significant increase in the use of tractors (1% to 2%). These results provide crucial evidence of the impact of government-sponsored enterprises on the early US agricultural economy and its use as a cost-effective tool to address market frictions.
[学术文献 ] Can digitally-enabled financial instruments secure an inclusive agricultural transformation? 进入全文
Agricultural Economics
Research shows that risk management will be key if an agricultural transformation that includes the smallholder farm sector is to occur in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. While the smallholder farm sector has historically had poor access to financial and other risk management tools, digital technologies are rapidly impacting the cost and availability of savings, credit, and insurance services in remote rural regions. While these services are all different ways of moving money through time, and thus would seem to be substitutes for each other, they are characterized by quite different pre-requisites in terms of trust and understanding, and in terms of required tangible and reputational assets. This observation suggests that resilience and an inclusive agricultural transformation might be best promoted by a flexible system that offers indexed risk management tools that can meet the needs of households that enjoy different assets and beliefs. This article lays out this logic and models the use and impacts of a system of flexible financial tools for risk management and an inclusive agricultural transformation. Key findings include that farmers will optimally combine all three financial instruments. The model also shows that these combined financial risk management tools are by themselves sufficient to induce agricultural intensification for less poor, but not for the deeply poor households who have already been decapitalized by shocks.
[学术文献 ] 俄乌冲突、国际农业合作与中国粮食安全保障——中国国外农业经济研究会俄乌变局下的全球农业与粮食安全研讨会综述 进入全文
世界农业
保障粮食安全是国家安全战略的重要组成部分，是全面推进乡村振兴的首要任务和底线要求。俄罗斯、乌克兰是全球重要的粮食、能源、矿物、化肥等大宗产品生产国和出口国，影响着全球重要的初级产品供应通道。自2022年2月24日起，俄罗斯对乌克兰进行特别军事行动，俄乌关系演变为俄乌军事冲突（以下简称俄乌冲突）。俄乌冲突在影响两国农业生产的同时，对全球农产品贸易、农业合作也会产生深远影响。俄乌两国都是中国农产品进口来源国和潜在的农业合作对象。
