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[学术文献 ] 中国与“一带一路”沿线国家数字经济合作研究 进入全文
东岳论丛
“一带一路”是中国倡导的、具有创新性的全球治理模式,随着全球经济数字化转型,建设数字“一带一路”是重要发展方向。中国与“一带一路”沿线国家数字经济合作具有坚实的基础,已在合作机制和政策协同、数字基础设施建设、丝路电商等领域取得重要成就。同时还存在对数字经济认知不一致、外部环境压力、数字经济发展水平参差不齐、数字经济规则和机制建设不足等挑战。未来,要在参与全球数字经济治理和规则制定、强化“一带一路”国家数字基础设施和经贸往来、促进民心相通等方面持续发力,推动“一带一路”沿线国家数字经济高质量发展。
[学术文献 ] Multidimensional impacts from international agricultural research: Implications for research priorities 进入全文
Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems
Investors in international agricultural research seek sustainable agri-food technologies that can potentially serve multiple objectives, including economic growth, food security, and sustainable use of natural resources. We employ quantitative economic models to examine the potential multi-dimensional impacts of agricultural productivity gains in the Global South. These models take into account behavior responses to agricultural technological change, i.e., how productivity changes may affect decisions on what to produce, trade, and consume. We compare potential impacts of productivity growth in different commodities and regions and assess implications along several impact dimensions, including economic and income growth, the population at risk of hunger, adequacy of protein and micronutrients in human diets, land and water use, and greenhouse gas emissions. Potential impacts vary widely by commodity group and by region. These results reveal strengths and potential tradeoffs of different R&D spending allocations, and can help inform decision-making about an optimal R&D portfolio that takes into account the multiple objectives of agricultural investments.
[学术文献 ] “一带一路”智库报告主题挖掘与演化研究 进入全文
智库理论与实践
作为国家“软实力”和“话语权”的重要组成部分，智库对政府决策、企业发展、社会舆论与公共知识传播等方面具有深刻影响。在对“一带一路”合作倡议的认知上，智库以及智库专家的研究成果，在对外合作、舆论导向、项目评估等方面发挥着重要作用，同时也能够反映“一带一路”合作倡议的工作重点等信息。本文通过量化研究中国智库对“一带一路”倡议研究的主题分布与演化历程，得到“一带一路”倡议在中国智库视角下的重点关注、研究方向和研究发展脉络，为“一带一路”倡议相关研究的推进提供整理与参考。[方法/过程]本文结合LDA2vec主题模型与词向量语义相似度计算方法，对于《全球智库报告2020》榜单中的中国智库，在2013—2020年间关于“一带一路”倡议研究的3,052份报告进行主题挖掘以及主题演化研究，并进行可视化呈现，分析主题内容与演化特征。[结果/结论]我国智库对“一带一路”倡议的研究热点主题逐年覆盖政治、经济、文化、社会、军事、环境等领域，且研究热点有着鲜明的基调，如“互利互信”“互联互通”“命运共同体”“共赢”等，主题演变的过程体现出明显的主题继承性、主题融合性等特征，这也体现出“一带一路”倡议逐渐全面的发展过程，也能够说明国内智库对“一带一路”倡议的研究重点具有持续性和拓展性。
[学术文献 ] Comparative Advantage of Agricultural Trade in Countries along the Belt and Road and China and Its Dynamic Evolution Characteristics 进入全文
Foods
Trade is an important means to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Target 2.1 “Zero Hunger”, and comparative advantage can be used to explain the causes and performance of trade. This study measures the static distribution of agricultural trade comparative advantage in countries along the Belt and Road (B&R) and China by utilizing the Balassa revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index, and further calculates its dynamic change by utilizing the revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) index and the ordinary least squares correlation analysis. The results show that: (1) in the face of multiple unfavorable factors, the initial comparative advantage of most agricultural products at Harmonized System (HS) 2-digit level in countries along the B&R and China deteriorated, simultaneously, but the initial comparative disadvantage of most and some agricultural products at HS 2-digit level in countries along the B&R and China improved, respectively; (2) the present agricultural trade comparative advantage in most countries along the B&R was higher than China and had a larger extent of change, but the current product structure of their bilateral agricultural trade was in line with each other’s comparative advantage, indirectly proving the validity of the Heckscher–Ohlin theorem. Our research findings suggest that the agricultural trade comparative advantage in countries along the B&R and China need to be further utilized to improve agricultural trade performance and better play its important role in ensuring global, regional, and national food security.
[学术文献 ] 农业视角下加入CPTPP对中国经济和产业的影响研究 进入全文
世界农业
为推动高水平对外开放和高质量畅通外循环，中国已正式申请加入CPTPP。农业是关系中国国计民生的重要产业，也是CPTPP各成员十分关注的领域。本文在深入分析CPTPP主要成员关税减让情况的基础上，通过GTAP模型定量测度加入CPTPP对中国经济和农业的影响。研究结果显示，加入CPTPP对中国宏观经济具有正向促进作用，同时对农业产出的负面影响有限，但对乳制品、羊毛及丝织品、小麦等农产品进出口冲击较大。建议中国坚持安全底线，细化研究CPTPP规则做好重点农产品的保护预案，有序推进农业进一步开放，并持续深化农业改革，在区域经济一体化中把握主动权。
[学术文献 ] 世界经济增长分析框架：新变量及其创新发展 进入全文
学术月刊
世界经济增长实践正在发生深刻变化。传统的基于生产要素函数理论为基础形成的经济增长理论和方法，正在遇到一系列新的实践变革带来的巨大挑战。新冠疫情全球大流行、国际投资贸易规则新变化、全球经济区域化周边化、大国经济政策溢出效应、“一带一路”倡议、双循环新发展格局、全球减碳战略实施以及大数据和人工智能等等重大新变量、新因素正在深刻冲击和改变传统世界经济增长格局，客观上也在影响和重塑传统经济增长的速度、总量、资源配置结构、企业组织、产业结构、规制结构以及全要素生产率新机理，潜在地推动世界经济增长理论创新和发展。理论研究和创新发展需要把这些新变量、新因素引进传统分析框架，构建并形成统一而综合的世界经济增长新分析框架。这是世界经济增长理论包括国别经济发展理论创新发展的新方向和新空间。
