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[学术文献 ] Current guidance underestimates risk of global environmental change to food security 进入全文
British Medical Journal
Over the past several years many global reports and scientific articles have offered guidance to policy makers on how climate change is likely to affect global food security. But these publications paint an incomplete, and likely overly optimistic, picture of the threat that anthropogenic environmental change poses to food production, nutrition, and health. Projected effects of climate change on food security are often based on crop models that incorporate only a few dimensions of climate related biophysical change—usually characterized by changes in temperature and precipitation. Omitted from these mathematical models are other biophysical changes related to a disrupted climate system and, importantly, other anthropogenic biophysical changes that are also likely to affect the quality or quantity of food the world can produce.
[学术文献 ] 从多边贸易体制看美国贸易政策的嬗变 进入全文
美国研究
现代国际贸易体制是建立在第二次世界大战之后形成的布雷顿森林体系之上的。从起初的关税及贸易总协定到现在的世界贸易组织，美国在引领多边贸易体制构建的同时，也在不断调整自己的对外贸易政策。自特朗普政府上台后，美国频频退出一些国际组织，还对包括中国在内的部分世界贸易组织成员采取贸易保护主义政策。世界贸易组织不同于关税及贸易总协定，包括争端解决机构做出的裁决在内，世界贸易组织规则对其成员具有强制约束力。世贸组织成员任何涉及多边贸易体制和其他成员利益的举动都可能产生“牵一发而动全身”的效应。美国对其他成员采取贸易制裁措施摆脱不了世界贸易组织规则的约束。因此，从多边贸易体制视角研究美国贸易政策是一条可行的路径，而美国贸易政策的变化也为观察多边贸易体制的走向提供了一个独特的视角。
[学术文献 ] Concentration and crises: exploring the deep roots of vulnerability in the global industrial food system 进入全文
The Journal of Peasant Studies
The world has experienced three global food crises in the past 50 years. While unique triggers sparked each of these crises, they all exposed extreme concentration within the global industrial food system at multiple scales – at the field, country, and global market levels. This multi-level concentration heightens vulnerability to worldwide food crises that have profound consequences for the world’s most marginalized populations. With a focus on staple grains production and trade, this contribution traces the origins of the high degrees of multi-level concentration in the industrial food system and draws insights for debates on the current food systems transformation agenda.
[学术文献 ] The impact of COVID-19 and associated policy responses on global food security 进入全文
Agricultural Economics
We analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses on the global economy and food security in 80 low- and middle-income countries. We use a global economy-wide model with detailed disaggregation of agricultural and food sectors and develop a business-as-usual baseline for 2020 and 2021 called “But-for-COVID” (BfC). We then shock the model with aggregate income shocks derived from the IMF World Economic Outlook for 2020 and 2021. We impose total-factor productivity losses in key sectors as well as consumption decreases induced by social distancing. The resulting shocks in prices and incomes from the CGE model simulations are fed into the USDA-ERS International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model to derive the impact of the pandemic on food security in these 80 countries. The main effect of the pandemic was to exacerbate the existing declining trend in food security. Food insecurity increases considerably in countries in Asia through income shocks rather than prices effects. We also review trade policies that were put in place to restrict imports and exports of food, and we evaluate their potential for further disruption of markets focusing on the food-security implications.
[学术文献 ] Cash transfers as a response to COVID-19: Experimental evidence from Kenya 进入全文
Journal of Development Economics
We deliver one month’s average profit to a randomly selected group of female microenterprise owners in Dandora, Kenya, arriving just in advance of an exponential growth in COVID-19 cases. Relative to a control group, firms recoup about one third of their initial decline in profit, and food expenditures increase. Control profit responds to economic conditions and government announcements during our study period, and treatment effects are largest when control profit is at its lowest. PPE spending and precautionary management practices increase to mitigate the health risks of more intensive firm operation, but only among those who perceive COVID-19 as a major risk.
[学术文献 ] 中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的减贫效应研究 进入全文
外国经济与管理
本文基于2003—2019年“一带一路”沿线47个国家的面板数据，实证考察了中国对外直接投资与“一带一路”沿线国家贫困水平之间的关系。研究发现，中国对外直接投资显著降低了“一带一路”沿线国家的贫困发生率、贫困深度和贫困强度。异质性分析表明，对于与中国邻近、中等收入水平以及与中国双边互信程度高的沿线国家，中国对外直接投资的减贫效应更加明显。机制检验结果显示，就业效应和技术溢出效应是中国对沿线国家直接投资发挥减贫效应的重要影响渠道。本文丰富和拓展了外国直接投资减贫效应的研究，同时为中国加强与“一带一路”沿线国家的投资合作以及推动沿线国家实现减贫目标提供了有益的实践指导。
