Retail Food Price Forecasting at ERS

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英文名称：

Retail Food Price Forecasting at ERS

作者：

Frederick L. Joutz; Robert P. Trost; Charlie Hallahan; Annette Clauson; Mark Denbaly

工作单位：

USDA's Economic Research Service

来源地址：

https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=47335

关键词：

cyclical variation;  forecasting;  retail food prices; 

年份：

2000

出版地：

Washington, DC, USA

总页数：

62 pp

语种：

English

摘要：

Forecasting retail food prices has become increasingly important to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). This is due to the changing structure of food and agricultural economies and the important signals the forecasts provide to farmers, processors, wholesalers, consumers, and policymakers. The American food system is going through fundamental structural changes. It is unclear how these changes will affect the cyclical variation of food price markups and translate into changes in retail food prices. The only government entity that systematically examines food prices and provides food price forecasts (on an annual basis) is the Economic Research Service, an agency of USDA. This report explains the ERS procedures in forecasting food prices and assesses how changes in the current procedures would improve the quality of the forecasts.