Forecasting Consumer Price Indexes for Food: A Demand Model Approach

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英文名称：

Forecasting Consumer Price Indexes for Food: A Demand Model Approach

作者：

Kuo Huang

工作单位：

USDA's Economic Research Service

来源地址：

https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=47317

关键词：

Food price forecasts;  inverse demand system;  autoregressive model; 

年份：

2000

出版地：

Washington, DC, USA

总页数：

17 pp

语种：

English

摘要：

Forecasting food prices is an important component of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's short-term outlook and long-term baseline forecasting activities. A food price-forecasting model is developed by applying an inverse demand system, in which prices are functions of quantities of food use and income. Therefore, these quantity and income variables can be used as explanatory variables for food price changes. The empirical model provides an effective instrument for forecasting consumer price indexes of 16 food categories. ERS AutoFAX summary document # 01733. Contact: khuang@ers.usda.gov.