A method for determining predicted failure rates of drug injection devices includes receiving a set of parameters that specify physical properties of (i) a syringe, and (ii) a liquid drug, and (iii) a drug injection device configured to deliver the liquid drug to a patient via the syringe. The method further includes receiving failure rate data that specifies a measured rate of failure of the drug injection device in response to various peak pressures within the syringe, applying the received set of parameters to a kinematic model of the drug injection device to determine a predicted peak pressure within the syringe, including determining the predicted peak pressure as a function of impact velocity of the liquid drug, determining a probability of failure of the drug injection device using (i) the received failure rate data and (ii) the predicted peak pressure, and providing an indication of the determined probability of failure to an output device.
