An evaluation method for evaluating the ultraviolet protection effect of a measurement sample applied on a substrate includes a first step of measuring, at predetermined wavelength intervals, a change over time of a spectral transmission spectrum of the measurement sample within a predetermined wavelength range by irradiating light from a light source that includes ultraviolet light, visible light, and infrared light under a predetermined irradiation condition a second step of establishing, based on the change over time of the spectral transmission spectrum, a correlation between a light irradiation time and an erythema effective dose per unit time, which is obtained by dividing an erythema effective dose of the measurement sample by an erythema effective dose per 1 MED and a third step of calculating an in vitro rSPF predictive value for the measurement sample on the basis of a time until a cumulative erythema effective dose, which is obtained through time integration based on the correlation, reaches 1 MED.
