Bangladesh Economic Update, October 2012

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作者：

World Bank

来源地址：

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27068

关键词：

ACCESS TO INFORMATION;  ACCOUNT DEFICITS;  ACCOUNTING;  ADMINISTERED PRICE;  ADMINISTERED PRICES;  ADVANCED ECONOMIES;  AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES;  AGRICULTURE;  ANNUAL GROWTH;  ASSET QUALITY;  AUCTION;  AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATE;  BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;  BALANCE SHEETS;  BANK BORROWING;  BANK FINANCING;  BANK SUPERVISION;  BANKING INDUSTRY;  BANKING SECTOR;  BANKING SYSTEM;  BENEFICIARIES;  BID;  BILL;  BROAD MONEY;  BUDGET DEFICIT;  BUFFER;  CAPITAL ADEQUACY;  CAPITAL GOODS;  CAPITAL MARKET;  CASH TRANSFER;  CENTRAL BANK;  CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES;  COLLATERAL;  COMMERCIAL BANKS;  COMMERCIAL INVESTMENT;  COMMODITY PRICES;  COMPETITIVENESS;  CONSUMER GOODS;  CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE;  CONTINGENT LIABILITIES;  CREDIT FLOWS;  CREDIT MARKETS;  CREDIT RISK;  CURRENT ACCOUNT;  CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS;  CUSTOMS DUTIES;  CUSTOMS DUTY;  DEFAULTS;  DEFICITS;  DEMAND GROWTH;  DEPOSIT;  DEPOSITS;  DEPRECIATION;  DISBURSEMENTS;  DISPUTE RESOLUTION;  DOMESTIC BORROWING;  DOMESTIC INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS;  DRAG ON GROWTH;  ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS;  ECONOMIC GROWTH;  EMERGING ECONOMIES;  EMERGING MARKET;  EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES;  EQUILIBRIUM;  EQUIPMENT;  EXCHANGE COMMISSION;  EXCHANGE RATE;  EXCHANGE RATE FLEXIBILITY;  EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY;  EXPENDITURE;  EXPENDITURES;  EXPORT EARNINGS;  EXPORT GROWTH;  EXPORT MARKET;  EXTERNAL DEMAND;  EXTERNAL FINANCING;  EXTERNAL PRESSURES;  EXTERNAL TRADE;  FINANCIAL CRISIS;  FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS;  FINANCIAL POLICIES;  FISCAL DEFICIT;  FISCAL DEFICITS;  FISCAL POLICY;  FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES;  FOOD CONSUMPTION;  FOOD DISTRIBUTION;  FOOD GRAINS;  FOOD IMPORTS;  FOOD PLANNING;  FOOD PRICE;  FOOD PRICES;  FOOD SECURITY;  FOOD SUPPLIES;  FOREIGN ASSETS;  FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT;  FOREIGN EXCHANGE;  FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES;  FOREIGN FINANCING;  FOREIGN INVESTORS;  FRAUD;  GLOBAL DEMAND;  GLOBAL ECONOMY;  GOVERNMENT BORROWING;  GOVERNMENT BUDGET;  GOVERNMENT SECURITIES;  GRAIN PRODUCTION;  GROWTH RATES;  HIGH INFLATION;  HOLDING;  HOUSEHOLD INCOME;  IMPORT;  IMPORT GROWTH;  INCOME TAX;  INFLATION;  INFLATION DIFFERENTIAL;  INTEREST RATE;  INTEREST RATE CAPS;  INTEREST RATE FLEXIBILITY;  INTEREST RATE SPREAD;  INTEREST RATE SPREADS;  INTEREST RATES;  INTERNATIONAL MARKET;  INTERNATIONAL MARKETS;  INTERNATIONAL PRICE;  INTERNATIONAL PRICES;  INTERNATIONAL RESERVES;  INVENTORY;  INVESTMENT RATE;  INVESTOR CONFIDENCE;  LABOR FORCE;  LABOR MARKET;  LIGHT INDUSTRY;  LIQUIDITY;  LIQUIDITY CRISIS;  LIQUIDITY RISK;  LIQUIDITY SUPPORT;  LOAN;  LOAN QUALITY;  LOAN RECOVERY;  LOCAL GOVERNMENTS;  LOCAL MARKET;  MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT;  MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT;  MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE;  MARKET DIVERSIFICATION;  MARKET FORCES;  MARKET PRICES;  MARKET RISK;  MARKET RISKS;  MARKET SHARE;  MARKET VOLATILITY;  MOBILE PHONE;  MONETARY CONDITIONS;  MONETARY FUND;  MONETARY POLICY;  MONETARY PROGRAM;  MONETARY TARGETS;  NATIONAL SAVING;  NATURAL DISASTER;  NATURAL DISASTERS;  NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE;  NOMINAL WAGES;  OIL PRICE;  OIL PRICES;  OPEN MARKET;  PADDY;  PETROLEUM PRICE;  PETROLEUM PRODUCTS;  POLITICAL INSTABILITY;  POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY;  PORTFOLIO;  POVERTY REDUCTION;  PRICE INCREASE;  PRICE INCREASES;  PRICE INDEX;  PRICE LEVEL;  PRICE TRENDS;  PRICE VOLATILITY;  PRIMARY COMMODITIES;  PRIMARY DEALER;  PRIMARY DEALERS;  PRIVATE CREDIT;  PRIVATE INVESTMENT;  PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT;  PUBLIC ASSETS;  PUBLIC INVESTMENT;  PUBLIC STOCK;  REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE;  REAL EXCHANGE RATE;  REINVESTMENT;  REMITTANCE;  REMITTANCES;  RESERVE;  RESERVE MONEY;  RESERVES;  RETAIL PRICE;  SAFETY NET;  SAFETY NETS;  SECURITIES;  SHORTFALL;  SHORTFALLS;  SLOWDOWN;  SOVEREIGN BONDS;  SOYBEAN;  STRUCTURAL REFORMS;  SUPERVISION OF BANKS;  SUPPLIER;  SUPPLIERS;  SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS;  SUPPLY SHOCKS;  SUPPLY SIDE;  T-BILLS;  TARIFF INCREASE;  TAX;  TAX COLLECTION;  TAX COLLECTIONS;  TAX REGIME;  TOTAL IMPORT;  TRADE GROWTH;  TRADING;  TRADING VOLUME;  TRANSPARENCY;  TRUST FUND;  WEIGHTS;  WHEAT;  WHEAT FLOUR;  WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME;  WORLD MARKET;  Report; 

年份：

2012

出版地：

Washington,USA

语种：

English

摘要：

Despite an unfavourable global economy, economic growth in Bangladesh is projected at close to 6 percent in fiscal 2013 (FY13). Adverse external demand and domestic supply constraints continue to be a drag on growth. Shortfalls in exports and investments due to a possible protracted crisis in the euro area and internal supply constraints may underpin the moderation of growth. Investment targets of the medium term budget framework 2013 to 2017 face major obstacles in shortage of electricity and gas supplies, and poorly functioning roads and ports. One positive prospect on the investment front is the increase in foreign direct investment in FY12, which surpassed the US$ 1 billion for the second time in Bangladesh's history. Fiscal policy is back on track. Fiscal performance in FY12 was favourable, notwithstanding increasing subsidies. The overall budget deficit in FY12 is estimated at 4.5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Domestic financing of the deficit declined to 3.2 percent of GDP, from 3.5 percent in FY11. Lower government borrowing from the banking system in the second half of FY12 was a welcome reversal from worrying trends in the first half of the year. The FY13 budget deficit target 5 percent of GDP is modest, though higher than the estimated 4.5 percent of FY12, and is likely to be undershot primarily because of a shortfall in the implementation of the ambitious Tk 550 billion annual development programs, by now a familiar pattern. However, the financing of the deficit may be a challenge with a projected US$2.2 billion net external financing need, substantially more than the $1.4 billion of the revised FY12 budget. The rest of the deficit is projected to be financed from domestic sources, with a still heavy 69 percent reliance on bank borrowing. Bangladesh's economic outlook is subject to several near-term risks. Possible intensification of the euro area crisis may deepen Bangladesh's export slump of the last six months; escalation of global food prices may reverse the recent decline in food inflation; global oil price shock will place the balance of payments under pressure again and shrink fiscal space; banks are susceptible to credit and market risk and the global economic vulnerabilities; and increased political instability and labour unrest may depress investments further.