Lao Economic Monitor, May 2016 : Challenges in Promoting More Inclusive Growth and Shared Prosperity

• 查看报告

作者：

Najdov, Evgenij

来源地址：

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24372

关键词：

LIVING STANDARDS;  TARIFFS;  TERRORISM;  DEFICIT;  DEPOSIT;  GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES;  OIL PRICE;  NPL;  EQUIPMENT;  ACCOUNTING;  DEPOSITS;  BROAD MONEY;  FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT;  STOCK;  INTEREST;  PUBLIC INVESTMENTS;  DEBT STOCK;  BANKING SECTOR ASSET;  EXCHANGE;  GOVERNMENT REVENUES;  BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;  DISCOUNT RATE;  ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS;  RESERVE REQUIREMENTS;  DEBT MANAGEMENT;  REPAYMENTS;  REVENUES;  PORTFOLIO;  BONDS;  LOAN;  DISCOUNT;  BORROWERS;  TRADE SECTOR;  TAX;  PUBLIC BORROWING;  NON-PERFORMING LOANS;  RESERVE;  CREDITORS;  INFLATION;  DEBT BURDEN;  CREDITOR;  FOREIGN INVESTMENTS;  SAFETY NETS;  BANK LENDING;  BUDGET;  MATURITY;  MACROECONOMIC STABILITY;  TRADE BALANCE;  OIL PRICES;  INVESTMENT SPENDING;  CURRENCY;  COMMERCIAL BORROWING;  ENFORCEMENT OF CONTRACTS;  COMMERCIAL BANK;  PORTFOLIOS;  INCOME GROWTH;  CONTRACTS;  INFLATIONARY PRESSURES;  FINANCES;  FOREIGN CURRENCIES;  BOND ISSUANCE;  TRADING;  OPTIONS;  DEBT OUTSTANDING;  INTEREST RATES;  MONETARY FUND;  MARKETS;  DEBT;  CAPITAL MARKET;  INFLATIONARY PRESSURE;  HOUSEHOLD INCOME;  INFLATION RATE;  SETTLEMENT;  CREDITOR RIGHTS;  LOANS;  DIRECT INVESTMENT;  RESERVES;  DEBT SERVICE;  GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT;  MONETARY AUTHORITIES;  FINANCE;  FOREIGN CURRENCY;  PUBLIC INVESTMENT;  TAXES;  BANKING SECTOR;  FISCAL DEFICIT;  EXPENDITURE;  DEBT FINANCING;  INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS;  CREDIT EXPANSION;  EQUITY;  INVESTORS;  COMMERCIAL BANK LENDING;  ECONOMIC RISKS;  HUMAN CAPITAL;  INTEREST PAYMENTS;  GOOD;  GOVERNMENT BUDGET;  FUTURE;  FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT;  RETURNS;  FARMING HOUSEHOLDS;  INVESTMENT PROJECTS;  PRICE CHANGES;  DISBURSEMENTS;  EXPENDITURES;  CREDIT INFORMATION;  AMORTIZATION;  ISSUANCE;  CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT;  POTENTIAL INVESTMENT;  LOAN PORTFOLIO;  MARKET;  LOCAL CURRENCY;  NON-PERFORMING LOAN;  PUBLIC DEBT;  BALANCE OF PAYMENT;  SOLVENCY;  INSURANCE;  CURRENCIES;  ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT;  INVESTOR;  GOODS;  BANK BRANCH;  LENDING INTEREST RATES;  INVESTMENT;  BOND;  COMMERCIAL BANKS;  SHARE;  LOAN PORTFOLIOS;  INVESTMENT CLIMATE;  PUBLIC FINANCES;  POVERTY;  LOAN SIZE;  POLITICAL STABILITY;  CAPITAL INFLOWS;  BANK SUPERVISION;  REVENUE;  EXTERNAL DEBT;  PROFIT;  INVESTMENTS;  LENDING;  CONSUMER PRICE INDEX;  CREDIT GROWTH;  BANKING SECTOR ASSETS;  MATURITIES;  EXCHANGE RATE;  FISCAL DISCIPLINE;  DEBT SERVICING;  PUBLIC DEBT STOCK;  PUBLIC SPENDING;  COMMODITY PRICES;  EQUITY STAKES;  ARREARS;  CAPITAL ACCOUNT;  EXTERNAL BORROWING;  Report; 

年份：

2016

出版地：

Washington,USA

语种：

English

摘要：

The Lao economy is estimated to have expanded by around 7 percent in 2015, a slight moderation from 7.5 percent in 2014. Similar to the last decade, the resource sectors (hydropower and extractives) continued to make an important contribution to growth. Power generation got a boost from the commissioning of the first two blocks of the 1,878 MW Hongsa lignite power plant and an additional 250-300 MW of installed capacity in the hydro sector. Furthermore, despite lower global commodity prices, mining output still increased as metal prices remained above the mines’ cost recovery levels. The revised State Budget Law, approved in December 2015, enhances the authority of the National Assembly in budget oversight and Ministry of Finance in budget management. In addition, with regards to anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing, the Government strengthened key regulations (including on forfeiture of assets, border declaration, penalties for non-compliant entities) recommended by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), which helped remove Lao PDR from the FATF’s list of ‘jurisdictions not making sufficient progress’. The outlook will depend on the progress in the implementation of the recommendations and agreed measures. GDP is expected to expand at around 7 percent per annum as a healthy pipeline in the power sector keeps investments strong and increases electricity production and exports by almost 40 percent. Stabilization of growth rates in China and some acceleration in Vietnam and Thailand should increase demand for Lao PDR exports. On the other hand, some gradual fiscal consolidation is expected, largely through broadening the revenue base and efforts to improve efficiency in spending and should help strengthen the outlook for public debt sustainability and lower the risk of debt distress from its current level of moderate, but borderline to high.