Middle East and North Africa Economic Developments and Prospects 2006 : Financial Markets in a New Age of Oil

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作者：

World Bank

来源地址：

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23971

关键词：

ACCOUNTABILITY;  ADVERSE IMPACT;  ARAB REPUBLIC OF;  AVERAGE OIL PRICE;  BALANCE;  BANK DEPOSITS;  BANK EXPOSURE;  BANK RESTRUCTURING;  BANKING SECTOR;  BANKS;  BARREL;  BARRELS PER DAY;  BUSINESS CLIMATE;  BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT;  CAPITAL ADEQUACY;  CAPITAL FLIGHT;  CAPITAL FLOWS;  CAPITAL MARKETS;  CAPITALIZATION;  CITIZENS;  CIVIL LIBERTIES;  COMPETITIVENESS;  CONTRACTUAL SAVINGS;  CORPORATE GOVERNANCE;  COUNTRY DATA;  CRIME;  CRUDE OIL;  CRUDE OIL PRICES;  CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION;  CURRENT EXPENDITURES;  DEBT;  DEPOSITS;  DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES;  DIESEL;  DIRECT INVESTMENT;  ECONOMIC EXPANSION;  ECONOMIC GROWTH;  ECONOMIC OUTCOMES;  EGYPT;  ENERGY USE;  EQUITY CAPITAL;  EXPORT GROWTH;  FINANCIAL MARKETS;  FINANCIAL SECTOR;  FINANCIAL SECTOR REFORMS;  FINANCIAL SYSTEMS;  FORECASTS;  FOREIGN ASSETS;  FOREIGN EXCHANGE;  FREE TRADE;  FUEL;  FUEL PRICE;  FUEL PRICES;  GASOLINE;  GASOLINE PRICES;  GDP;  GDP PER CAPITA;  GOVERNANCE REFORM;  GOVERNMENT FINANCE;  GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT;  GROWTH PERFORMANCE;  GROWTH RATE;  GROWTH RATES;  HIGHER OIL PRICES;  HOUSING;  INCOME;  INFLATION;  INVESTMENT CLIMATE;  INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES;  IRAN;  ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF;  LIQUIDITY;  LIQUIFIED PETROLEUM GAS;  LIVING STANDARDS;  LOW TARIFF;  M2;  MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE;  MIDDLE EAST;  MULTILATERAL TRADE;  NATURAL GAS;  NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION;  NONPERFORMING LOANS;  NORTH AFRICA;  OIL;  OIL ACCOUNTS;  OIL EXPORT REVENUES;  OIL EXPORTERS;  OIL EXPORTS;  OIL IMPORT;  OIL MARKET;  OIL PRICE;  OIL PRICES;  OIL PRODUCERS;  OIL PRODUCTION;  OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY;  OIL REVENUES;  OIL SECTOR;  OPEC;  OPERATING EFFICIENCY;  PER CAPITA INCOME;  PETROCHEMICALS;  PETROLEUM;  PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES;  PETROLEUM GAS;  PIPELINE;  POWER;  PRIME MINISTER;  PRIVATE SECTOR;  PRIVATIZATION;  PRODUCTION INCREASES;  PRODUCTIVITY;  PROFITABILITY;  PRUDENTIAL REGULATIONS;  REAL GDP;  REGIONAL BANKS;  RETAINED EARNINGS;  SAFETY NETS;  SAVINGS;  STORAGE FACILITIES;  SUBSIDIARY;  TRADE BALANCE;  TRADE LIBERALIZATION;  TRADE POLICY;  TROUGH;  UNEMPLOYMENT;  UNEMPLOYMENT RATES;  WEALTH;  WORLD OIL PRICES;  WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION;  WTO;  Report;  Rapport;  Informe; 

年份：

2006

出版地：

Washington,USA

语种：

English

摘要：

This edtion of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economic developments and prospects reports highlights the recent key economic developments as well as the forces underlying the region's economic outcomes. It analyzes the region's medium term growth prospects given global forecasts, and charts the region?s progress with implementing comprehensive structural reforms needed for longer-term growth. For the third year in a row, MENA enjoyed a spectacular year of growth, buoyed by record high growth rates among the region's oil exporters. As oil prices continued their upward climb, the MENA region grew by an average of 6.0 percent over 2005, up from 5.6 percent over 2004, and compared with average growth of only 3.5 percent over the late 1990s. On an annual basis, MENA's average economic growth over the last three years, at 6.2 percent per year, has been the highest three-year growth period for the region since the late 1970s. MENA's regional growth upturn has not been universally shared, however, and resource poor economies are increasingly feeling the adverse impact of higher oil prices. Growth patterns among oil producers, on the other hand, have been increasingly harmonized, reflecting a trend toward common development strategies. Over the medium term, general conditions for maintaining a solid pace for growth appear promising. The oil shock MENA is experiencing has had important financial spillovers. Over the last few years, MENA has seen an upsurge in financial activity, as abundant liquidity has fed a rapid rise in credit growth, surging stock markets, and a booming real estate sector. A troubling aspect about MENA's financial markets is the seeming disconnect between the financial sector and the real private economy, despite the appearance of a relatively deep financial sector by macroeconomic indicators. Along with across the board policy reform, MENA economies continue to look to selective industrial policies designed to enhance specific sector competitiveness and growth to complement more broad-based structural reform. Although the views on industrial policy are changing, and a variety of economic justifications can be made for their use, MENA's own unsuccessful history with industrial policies (and the difficulty in transitioning out of them) should serve as a cautious reminder that the most effective policies for promoting growth rely on strategies to create a neutral and internationally competitive business environment.