Russian Economic Report, No. 26, September 2011 : Growing Risks

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作者：

World Bank

来源地址：

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26690

关键词：

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;  AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES;  AGRICULTURE;  AUDITS;  AVERAGE OIL PRICE;  BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;  BANK LENDING;  BANKING SECTOR;  BASIS POINTS;  BENCHMARK;  BILATERAL TRADE;  BOND;  BORROWING CAPACITY;  BUDGET SURPLUS;  BUFFERS;  CAPITAL ACCOUNT;  CAPITAL FLOWS;  CAPITAL INFLOWS;  CAPITAL INVESTMENTS;  CAPITAL OUTFLOWS;  CENTRAL BANK;  CENTRAL BANK POLICY;  COMMODITY MARKET;  COMMODITY PRICES;  CONSOLIDATION;  CONSUMER CONFIDENCE;  CONSUMER CREDITS;  CONSUMER LOANS;  CONSUMER PRICE;  CONSUMER PRICE INDEX;  CONSUMERS;  CONSUMPTION GROWTH;  CREDIT DEFAULT;  CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP;  CURRENT ACCOUNT;  CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE;  CUSTOMS UNION;  DEBT;  DEBT CRISIS;  DEBT RATINGS;  DEBT REPAYMENTS;  DEFICITS;  DEMAND GROWTH;  DEPOSIT;  DEVELOPED COUNTRIES;  DISPOSABLE INCOME;  DIVIDENDS;  DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION;  DOMESTIC DEMAND;  DOWNSIDE SCENARIOS;  DOWNWARD PRESSURE;  ECONOMIC ACTIVITY;  ECONOMIC CONDITIONS;  ECONOMIC CRISIS;  ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS;  ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT;  ECONOMIC GROWTH;  ECONOMIC INTEGRATION;  ECONOMIC OUTLOOK;  ECONOMIC POLICY;  EMERGING MARKETS;  EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL;  EQUITIES;  EXCHANGE RATE POLICY;  EXPENDITURE;  EXPORT VOLUMES;  EXPORTS;  EXPOSURE;  EXTERNAL BORROWING;  EXTERNAL DEBT;  EXTERNAL DEMAND;  EXTERNAL FINANCING;  EXTERNAL SHOCKS;  FEDERAL BUDGET;  FINANCIAL SECTOR;  FISCAL BALANCE;  FISCAL DEFICIT;  FISCAL POLICY;  FIXED CAPITAL;  FIXED INCOME;  FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE;  FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME;  FOOD PRICES;  FORECASTS;  FOREIGN ASSET;  FOREIGN ASSET POSITION;  FOREIGN CURRENCY;  FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES;  FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS;  FORESTRY;  GLOBAL DEMAND;  GLOBAL ECONOMY;  GLOBAL MARKET;  GLOBAL TRADE;  GROWTH RATES;  HIGH INFLATION;  HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES;  HOLDING;  HOLDING REQUIREMENTS;  IMPORT;  INCOME INSTRUMENTS;  INCOME SHOCK;  INDEBTED COUNTRIES;  INDEXATION;  INFLATION;  INFLATION RATE;  INFLATIONARY PRESSURES;  INTERNATIONAL MARKETS;  INVENTORY;  INVESTING;  INVESTMENT CLIMATE;  INVESTOR CONFIDENCE;  LABOR FORCE;  LABOR MARKET;  LIQUIDITY;  LOANS TO INDIVIDUALS;  LOCAL CONTENT;  LONG-TERM EQUILIBRIUM;  MACROECONOMIC RISKS;  MARKET ACCESS;  MARKET CONDITIONS;  MARKET DEVELOPMENTS;  MATURITY;  MATURITY STRUCTURE;  MONETARY AUTHORITIES;  MONEY SUPPLY;  MORTGAGES;  NEGATIVE SHOCKS;  OIL;  OIL DEMAND;  OIL MARKET;  OIL PRICE;  OIL PRICING;  OIL REVENUES;  OIL SECTOR;  OIL SUPPLY;  OPEC;  ORGANIZATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES;  OUTPUT GAP;  PENSION;  PERMANENT INCOME;  POSITIVE EFFECTS;  POVERTY LEVEL;  POVERTY REDUCTION;  PRICE FORECAST;  PRICE INCREASE;  PRICE OF OIL;  PRICE STABILITY;  PRIVATE BANKS;  PRIVATE CONSUMPTION;  PRIVATE SECTOR DEBT;  PRODUCERS;  PUBLIC DEBT;  PUBLIC EXPENDITURES;  PUBLIC FINANCES;  PUBLIC SPENDING;  REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE;  REAL GDP;  REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT;  REAL INCOME;  REAL WAGES;  RECESSION;  RESERVE;  RESERVE FUND;  RESERVE REQUIREMENTS;  RETAIL;  RETAIL TRADE;  RETURN;  SEASONAL FACTORS;  SECURITIES;  SHORT-TERM DEBT;  SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS;  SLOWDOWN;  SOVEREIGN DEBT;  SOVEREIGN SECURITIES;  SPARE CAPACITY;  SPECULATIVE ATTACKS;  SPREAD;  STOCK MARKET;  STOCKS;  STRONG DEMAND;  SUPPLY SIDE;  SURPLUS;  TAX;  TOTAL CREDITS;  TOTAL DEBT;  TRADE BALANCE;  TRADE GROWTH;  TRADE POLICY;  TURNOVER;  UNCERTAINTY;  UNEMPLOYMENT;  UNEMPLOYMENT RATE;  VALUE ADDED;  VOLATILITY;  WHOLESALE TRADE;  WORLD TRADE;  WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION;  WTO;  Report;  Rapport;  Informe; 

年份：

2011

出版地：

Washington,USA

语种：

English

摘要：

Russia's economic growth slowed in the second quarter of 2011 as the inventory restocking cycle waned. High oil prices have kept the external current account in surplus but capital outflows continue. Gradually improving labor market conditions and access to credit and external borrowing are supporting domestic consumption but consumer confidence and external risks are constraining a more robust growth in domestic demand. Inflation is on a downward trend because of seasonal factors. The short-term fiscal situation is favorable mainly because of high oil prices with an almost balanced budget this year. But a large non-oil deficit requires concerted medium-term fiscal adjustment to replenish fiscal buffers and to move toward long-term sustainable levels of the non-oil deficit.