Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2016 : Resource Development in an Era of Cheap Commodities

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作者：

World Bank Group

来源地址：

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24171

关键词：

energy;  agriculture;  commodity markets;  fertilizers;  precious metals;  metals and minerals;  price forecasts;  trade balances;  price indices;  crude oil price;  coal;  coffee prices;  cotton stocks;  consumption;  gold production;  Report;  Rapport;  Informe; 

年份：

2016

出版地：

Washington,USA

语种：

English

摘要：

Most commodity price indexes rebounded in February-March from their January lows on improved market sentimentand a weakening dollar. Still, average prices for the first quarter fell compared to the last quarter of 2015, with energyprices down 21 percent and non-energy prices lower by 2 percent. Given the recent rebound in oil prices and expectedsupply tightening in the second half of the year, the crude oil price forecast for 2016 has been raised to $41 per barrel(bbl), up from $37/bbl in the January assessment (and represents a drop of 19 percent from 2015.) Metals prices areprojected to decline 8 percent, a slightly smaller drop than anticipated in January due to supply reductions. Agriculturalprices have been revised marginally lower on signs of adequate harvests in major producers, and are expected toregister a decline of 4 percent from last year. Looking to 2017, a modest price recovery is projected for most commoditiesas demand strengthens. Crude oil is projected to rise to $50/bbl as the market moves into balance. This issue of theCommodity Markets Outlook examines the implications of resource development in an era of lower commodity pricesand concludes that ambitious improvements in governance and sounder macroeconomic policies are required to mitigatedelays and risks.