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Merits of an Aggregate Futures Price Forecasting Model for the All Wheat U.S. Season-Average Farm Price
英文名称:
Merits of an Aggregate Futures Price Forecasting Model for the All Wheat U.S. Season-Average Farm Price
作者:
Linwood Hoffman""url":0; Jennifer K. Bond; Mariana Matias""url":0;
来源地址:
https://www.ers.usda.gov/api/publications/v1.0?page=18&items_per_page=20&sort_by=releaseDate&sort_order=DESC&series=CWS%2CFDS%2CGFA%2CFTS%2CLDPM%2COCS%2CAES%2CRCS%2CSSSM%2CTBS%2COCE%2CVGS%2CWHS
关键词:
Hard red winter wheat soft red winter wheat hard red spring wheat all wheat season-average farm price (SAFP) forecasts HRW-only futures-adjusted forecast model aggregate wheat futures-adjusted forecast model futures prices basis marketing weights
年份:
2021
出版地:
Washington, DC, USA
总页数:
48
语种:
English
摘要:
This report presents an alternative, aggregate futures-based forecasting model that utilizes the three available wheat futures contract prices, which represent the majority of U.S. wheat production. Results show that this model tends to provide forecasts with a lower mean absolute percent error and a more accurate prediction of positive directional movement.strongErrata:\/strong On May 23, this report was reposted to correct formatting errors throughout. Figure 4’s title was changed to revise winter wheat to wheat. Table 4’s title was corrected, as were the in-text references to figure 5 on page 7 and appendix 2, figure 13 on page 22. A superscript error was corrected in equation 5. In table 2, the average number of years was changed to 3 years, and a date was updated to 2018 in two places on page 10.

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