Forecasting the U.S. Season-Average Farm Price of Upland Cotton: Derivation of a Futures Price Forecasting Model

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英文名称：

Forecasting the U.S. Season-Average Farm Price of Upland Cotton: Derivation of a Futures Price Forecasting Model

作者：

Linwood Hoffman ; Leslie Meyer

工作单位：

USDA's Economic Research Service

来源地址：

https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=90244

关键词：

upland cotton;  season-average farm price forecasts;  futures-adjusted forecast model;  futures prices;  basis;  marketing weights; 

年份：

2018

出版地：

Washington, DC, USA

总页数：

24 pp

语种：

English

摘要：

A forward-looking futures price-based model is developed that assists in forecasting upland cotton’s season-average price (SAP) received by farmers. The SAP impacts resources devoted to cotton production, marketing, and manufacturing, and forecasts inform these decisions. A series of models are developed to generate alternative monthly SAP forecasts.