Global Trade Watch : Trade Developments in 2015

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作者：

Constantinescu, Cristina

来源地址：

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23889

关键词：

GROWTH RATES;  TRADE VOLUMES;  MERCHANDISE;  PARTICULAR COUNTRY;  PRODUCTION;  TRADE EFFECTS;  TRADE VALUES;  EXPECTATIONS;  EMERGING ECONOMIES;  EXCHANGE;  REAL GDP;  BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;  CONSUMER GOODS;  PROTECTIONIST;  EXPORTS;  SERVICES MARKETS;  ELASTICITY;  TRADE FLOWS;  EXPORTERS;  DEVELOPING ECONOMIES;  ECONOMIC POLICY;  TRADE REFORMS;  PRICE;  INPUTS;  PAYMENTS;  PRICE UNCERTAINTY;  INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION;  MERCHANDISE TRADE;  TRENDS;  ECONOMIC OUTLOOK;  FINAL GOODS;  ADVANCED COUNTRIES;  GROSS EXPORTS;  IMPORT DATA;  INFLUENCE;  EXPORT GROWTH;  ADVANCED ECONOMIES;  MERCHANDISE IMPORT;  REGIONAL TRADE;  SPECIALIZATION;  PRODUCTS;  COMMODITY EXPORTERS;  EMERGING MARKET;  EXPORT VOLUME;  CAPITAL OUTFLOWS;  PRICE DECLINES;  MARKETS;  WTO;  IMPORT VOLUME;  IMPORTS;  PRODUCT;  INVENTORIES;  GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT;  INVENTORY;  COMMODITY PRICE;  LIBERALIZATION;  EXPORT VALUE;  EXPENDITURE;  EMERGING MARKETS;  PROTECTIONIST MEASURES;  TRADE VOLUME;  COMMODITY EXPORTS;  CONSUMPTION;  VALUE ADDED;  TRAVEL;  WAGES;  INTERNATIONAL TRADE;  FINANCIAL CRISIS;  EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS;  MERCHANDISE EXPORTS;  FUTURE;  VALUE;  COMPETITIVENESS;  IMPORT VALUES;  DEMAND;  AGGREGATE DEMAND;  INTERMEDIATE GOODS;  INCOMES;  TOURISM;  SHARE OF CAPITAL;  MEASUREMENT;  FOREIGN VALUE;  MARKET;  TRADE LIBERALIZATION;  SUPPLY CHAIN;  TERMS OF TRADE;  OUTPUT;  CAPITAL GOODS;  EXPOSURE;  TRADE VALUE;  REGIONAL INTEGRATION;  TRADE;  GDP;  EXPORT PRICE;  GOODS;  SUPPLY CHAINS;  GLOBAL IMPORTS;  GLOBAL TRADE;  GROWTH RATE;  VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION;  INVESTMENT;  MERCHANDISE IMPORTS;  SHARE;  GLOBAL OUTPUT;  ADVERSE IMPACT;  SUPPLY;  ADVERSE EFFECT;  EXPORT VOLUMES;  EXPORT BASKET;  WORLD TRADE;  COMMODITIES;  EXCHANGE RATE;  COUNTRY OF ORIGIN;  INDUSTRIAL SECTOR;  COMMODITY PRICES;  COMMODITY;  IMPORT VALUE;  GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS;  PRICES;  VALUE OF EXPORTS;  MERCHANDISE EXPORT;  Report;  Rapport;  Informe; 

年份：

2016

出版地：

Washington,USA

语种：

English

摘要：

After sharply declining in the first half of 2015, world trade began to grow, albeit at a slow pace. Preliminary data indicate that merchandise import growth was 1.7 percent in 2015, down from 3 percent in 2014. Recent trade developments should be seen in the context of a deceleration in trade growth since the early 2000s, and particularly since the global financial crisis. These developments reflected a combination of old and new cyclical factors as well as enduring structural determinants, such as the maturation of global value chains and the slower pace of trade liberalization. In particular, trade developments in Latin America and Eastern Europe and Central Asia mostly reflected lower imports of recession hit commodity exporters such as Brazil and Russia. Latin America contributed 6 percent to the downward pull in global imports in 2015. Except for Japan, imports and exports of advanced economies did not show signs of a significant downturn, but were sluggish. Lower commodity prices have reduced real incomes in commodity producers and led to a contraction in their imports from all regions, including China. At the same time, the gradual shift from investment to consumption in China, and the more significant contraction in its industrial production seen in early 2015, have reduced its imports from other regions, including commodity producers.