A system and method is provided for analyzing a glucose state. A method mayinclude identifying atarget glucose state and an initial glucose state. The method may includecalculating a target return pathfor a transition from the initial glucose state to the target glucose state.The target return path maycomprise at least one intermediate glucose state associated with thetransition from the initial glucosestate to the target glucose state. The target return path may be calculatedbased on a hazard associatedwith the at least one intermediate glucose state of the target return path.