A method (500) includes obtaining training data (310) for a population that includes training blood glucose history data (208b) including treatment doses (316, 336) of insulin administered by patients (10) of the population and one or more outcome attributes (318, 338). The method also includes identifying one or more optimum treatment doses (340) of insulin from the treatment doses yielding favorable outcome attributes. The method also includes receiving patient-state information for a treated patient, determining a next recommended treatment dose (336) of insulin for the treated patient based on one or more of the identified optimum treatment doses associated with the patients of the population having training patient-state information similar to the patient-state information for the treated patient, and transmitting the next recommended treatment dose to a portable device (110, 123, 124).
