Methods and apparatus for determining a cardiac parameter from cardiovascular pressure signals including arterial blood pressure (ABP) and the photoplethysmographic signal to quantify the degree of amplitude modulation due to respiration and predict fluid responsiveness are disclosed. Disclosed embodiments include a method for assessing fluid responsiveness implemented in a digital computer with one or more processors comprising: (a) measuring a cardiovascular signal, and (b) computing a dynamic index predictive of fluid responsiveness from said cardiovascular signal using a nonlinear state space estimator. According to one particular embodiment, and without limitation, the nonlinear state space estimator is based on a model for cardiovascular signals such as arterial blood pressure or plethysmogram signals, and employs a marginalized particle filter to estimate a dynamic index predictive of fluid responsiveness that is substantially equivalent to a variation in pulse pressure of said cardiovascular signal.
