Patient activity is monitored via sensor 2, such as an accelerometer, GPS sensor or step counter, while detector 11 monitors vital signs such as hear rate, HRV, ECG, respiration rate or oxygen saturation. Current health level CH is determined from the vital parameters as a function of the activity level and may then be averaged over time to determine a long-time health level LH. If a deviation between the current health parameter and the long-term baseline exceeds a certain variation, the probability of an acute exacerbation is indicated. The system may be integrated in wearable device 1 in conjunction with evaluation unit 3, or alternatively or additionally portable computer 122, using wireless transmission 12. Worsening health status can impact the correlation between vital signs and activity level, or their recovery over time after a change in activity. The system may give an early prediction before clinical symptoms manifest.
