A method of estimating the probability of a seizure in a subject, the method comprising: receiving historical data associated with epileptic events experienced by the subject over a first time period, the historical data comprising physiological data associated with each epileptic event and a time at which each epileptic event occurred； generating a temporal probability model of future epileptic events based on the time of each of the epileptic events, the temporal probability model representing a probability of a future seizure occurrence in each of a plurality of time windows； generating a probabilistic model based on the physiological data associated with each epileptic event； weighting the probabilistic model based on the temporal probability model to generate a weighted probabilistic model of future seizure activity； and outputting an estimate of seizure probability in the subject using the weighted probabilistic model.
