Looking beyond the COVID-19 crisis

展望COVID-19危机

关键词：

来源：

Rabo bank

来源地址：

https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2020/april/looking-beyond-the-covid-19-crisis/

资源所属：

一带一路农业专题

类型：

行业报告

语种：

英语

原文发布日期：

2020-04-30

摘要：

While we currently expect a V-shaped recovery for the global economy, there is a clear risk of a more U-shaped or even L-shaped recover. The COVID-19 crisis presents the global economy with a complex interaction between supply and demand shocks. Supply may not return to its pre-COVID-19 level for a longer time, as certain activities remain subject to limitations. Job and income losses by households and lower investment by businesses following the lockdown period are likely to extend the recovery path. There could also be effects on global growth beyond the 2021 horizon. This is due to expected adverse productivity effects (caused by deglobalisation, lower private R&D investment, lower entrepreneurship and ‘zombification’) and a persistent shock to labor supply