Exact Distribution of Divergence Times from Fossil Ages and Tree Topologies

• 全文链接
• 请求原文

作   者：

Didier, Gilles;  Laurin, Michel; 

作者机构：

Sorbonne Univ;  France;  Montpellier;  Museum Natl Hist Nat;  CR2P Ctr Rech Paleontol Paris;  Paris;  Univ Montpellier;  CNRS;  IMAG; 

关键词：

probability distribution;  Divergence times;  fossilized birth-death model;  fossil ages; 

期刊名称：

Systematic Biology

i s s n：

1063-5157

年卷期：

2020 年 69 卷 6 期

页   码：

1068-1087

页   码：

摘   要：

Being given a phylogenetic tree of both extant and extinct taxa in which the fossil ages are the only temporal information (namely, in which divergence times are considered unknown), we provide a method to compute the exact probability distribution of any divergence time of the tree with regard to any speciation (cladogenesis), extinction, and fossilization rates under the Fossilized Birth-Death model. We use this new method to obtain a probability distribution for the age of Amniota (the synapsid/sauropsid or bird/mammal divergence), one of the most-frequently used dating constraints. Our results suggest an older age (between about 322 and 340 Ma) than has been assumed by most studies that have used this constraint (which typically assumed a best estimate around 310-315 Ma) and provide, for the first time, a method to compute the shape of the probability density for this divergence time.