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Central America agribusiness reports Q4/2019 Includes 5-year forecasts to 2022
- 作者：
- Business Monitor International Ltd
- 年份：
- 2019
- 学科分类：
- F373.04
- 出版地：
- London
- 总页数：
- 79
- 语种：
- English
- 信息来源：
- BMI Research
- 摘要：
- Key View Key View: We have made a wave of revisions this quarter to our agribusiness forecasts in the Central America region. The revisions have been mixed both to the upside and the downside and have come about following changes to USDA historical data and in repose to both structural and event-driven changes. Following these revisions, we hold a positive outlook for the sector as a whole, with only a handful of average annual contractions in growth forecast across our five-year forecast period. Our view is that as a result of rising incomes and growing populations as well as an improving real GDP outlook for the region, demand growth will largely outstrip supply growth in the livestock, grains and sugar sectors through to 2023, with the beef market being the exception to this rule. In the coffee market the balance is slightly more in favour of output Focusing on the key sugar market we highlight that production growth will rise, predominantly owing to increasing yields thanks to the adoption of more productive sugarcane varieties as well as better pest control and irrigation. Furthermore, our sugar price forecasts have turned positive for the first time in two years for 2019, which will provide a further tailwind to producers.
