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Central America agribusiness report Q1/2018 includes 5-year forecasts to 2021-2022
- 作者:
- Business Monitor International Ltd
- 年份:
- 2018
- 学科分类:
- F346.24
- 出版地:
- London
- 总页数:
- 83
- 语种:
- English
- 信息来源:
- BMI Research
- 摘要:
- BMI Industry View BMI View: We hold a broadly positive view on Central America's agribusiness market that was consolidated by the revisions to our forecasts in this quarterly update. This bullish view is inconsistent across the four markets and six countries we track, however, we see net growth in both production and consumption through to 2022. As a result of rising incomes and growing populations, as well as an improving real GDP outlook for the region, demand growth will largely outstrip supply growth in the livestock and grains sectors over the next five years. In the sugar and coffee markets, meanwhile, the balance between output and demand is more even. Focussing on the key market we highlight that production growth - which has seen a mixture of both upside and downside revisions to our forecasts in this update across the six countries in the region we track - will rise, predominantly due to increasing yields, owing to the adoption of more productive sugarcane varieties, as well as better pest control and irrigation. Future risks for the agribusiness market include disease (predominantly coffee rust disease, or royal the potential impact of La Nina on food security in the region, price fluctuations in the near term.