Global Commodity Markets : Review and Price Forecast

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作者：

World Bank

来源地址：

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27846

关键词：

ACCOUNTING;  AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES;  AGRICULTURAL PRICES;  ALUMINUM PRICES;  AUCTION;  AVAILABILITY;  BALANCE;  BANK INDONESIA;  BARRELS OF OIL;  CLIMATE;  CLIMATE CHANGES;  COAL;  COCOA PRICES;  COFFEE PRICES;  COMMODITY MARKETS;  COMMODITY PRICE;  COMMODITY PRICES;  COPPER PRICE;  COPPER PRICES;  COTTON PRICES;  CRUDE OIL;  CRUDE OIL CONSUMPTION;  CRUDE OIL PRICE;  CRUDE OIL STOCKS;  CURRENT PRICES;  DEMAND GROWTH;  ECONOMIC ACTIVITY;  ECONOMIC GROWTH;  ECONOMIC RECOVERY;  EFFICIENCY GAINS;  ENERGY COSTS;  ENERGY PRICE;  ENERGY PRICES;  ENERGY PRODUCTS;  ENERGY SOURCES;  ETHANOL;  ETHANOL INDUSTRY;  ETHANOL PRODUCER;  ETHANOL PRODUCTION;  EXPORT VOLUMES;  FEEDSTOCK;  FEEDSTOCK FOR ETHANOL;  FINANCIAL CRISIS;  FORWARD MARKETS;  GAS PRODUCTION;  GLOBAL RECESSION;  GOLD PRICE;  GOLD PRICES;  HIGHER ENERGY PRICES;  IDLE CAPACITY;  IMPORTS;  INCOME;  INFLATION;  INVENTORIES;  INVENTORY;  MANDATES;  NATURAL GAS;  NATURAL GAS PRICES;  NOMINAL PRICES;  NUCLEAR POWER;  OIL;  OIL CONSUMPTION;  OIL DEMAND;  OIL OUTPUT;  OIL PRICE;  OIL PRICES;  OIL PRODUCERS;  OIL PRODUCTS;  OIL SUPPLY;  OIL USE;  OILS;  PETROLEUM;  PETROLEUM PRICES;  POWER DEMAND;  POWER PRICES;  PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES;  PRICE FORECAST;  PRICE INCREASE;  PRICE INCREASES;  PRICE INDICES;  PRICE LEVELS;  PRICE PROJECTIONS;  PRICES OF ENERGY;  PRODUCTIVITY;  PURCHASING;  RAW MATERIAL;  RAW MATERIALS;  REAL PRICES;  RESERVE BANK OF INDIA;  SALES;  SOYBEAN OIL;  SPOT MARKETS;  STABLE PRICES;  STOCKS;  SUBSIDIARY;  SUBSTITUTE;  SUBSTITUTION;  SUGARCANE;  SUGARCANE PRODUCTION;  SUPPLIERS;  SUPPLY SIDE;  SURPLUS;  SURPLUSES;  SYNTHETIC RUBBER;  TRANSPORT;  URBANIZATION;  VOLATILITY;  WORLD CONSUMPTION;  WORLD MARKET;  Report; 

年份：

2010

出版地：

Washington,USA

语种：

English

摘要：

This is a companion to the Global Economic Prospects 2010. Most commodity prices reached historical highs in mid-2008, giving rise to the longest and broadest commodity boom of the post-WWII period. Apart from strong and sustained economic growth, the boom was fueled by numerous factors including years of low prices and low investment; a weak dollar; and investment fund activity. Rapid economic growth caused global stocks of many commodities to fall to levels not seen since the early 1970s, in turn accelerating the price increases that peaked in 2008. Further exacerbating the demand and supply mismatch were the diversion of some food commodities to the production of biofuels, adverse weather conditions, and government policies such as export bans and prohibitive taxes. The financial crisis that erupted in September 2008 and the subsequent global economic downturn relieved most of the demand-side pressures and induced sharp price declines across most commodity sectors. The largest declines occurred in industrial commodities such as metals (which had also registered the greatest gains in the early 2000s). Between July 2008 and February 2009, prices of energy declined by two-thirds while those of metals dropped by more than half. Prices of agricultural goods retreated by more than 30 percent, with prices of edible oils dropping by 42 percent. The troughs in energy and non-energy indices broadly coincided with troughs in global economic activity (particularly in China and East Asia).