The Effects of Rice Export Policy on Regional Income, Prices and the Poor : A 'Bottom-Up' Regional CGE Model for Vietnam

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作者：

Kompas, Tom

来源地址：

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27579

关键词：

AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES;  AGRICULTURE;  BARRIERS TO ENTRY;  BENCHMARK;  BENCHMARKS;  CALORIE INTAKE;  CAPITAL STOCKS;  COFFEE;  COMMODITIES;  COMMODITY;  COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE;  CONSUMER PRICE;  CONSUMER PRICE INDEX;  CONSUMERS;  COTTON;  CROPS;  DECISION MAKING;  DELTA REGION;  DOMESTIC ECONOMY;  DOMESTIC MARKET;  DOMESTIC MARKETS;  DOMESTIC PRICE;  DOMESTIC PRICES;  ELASTICITY;  ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION;  EQUILIBRIUM;  EXCHANGE RATE;  EXPENDITURE;  EXPORTS;  FAO;  FARM;  FARM ASSETS;  FARMING;  FINANCIAL SERVICES;  FISHERIES;  FIXED CAPITAL;  FOOD POLICY;  FOOD PRICES;  FOOD SECURITY;  FREE TRADE;  GDP;  GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION;  GRAIN;  HECTARES OF LAND;  HOUSEHOLD WELFARE;  INCOME;  INFLATION;  INFLATION RATE;  INTERMEDIATE PRODUCTS;  INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE;  INVENTORIES;  INVENTORY;  LIBERALIZATION;  LIVING STANDARDS;  MARKET INTEGRATION;  MARKET REFORM;  MARKET REFORMS;  MULTIPLIERS;  OUTPUT;  OUTPUTS;  PADDY;  PEPPER;  PERENNIAL CROPS;  PLANTING;  POULTRY;  POVERTY ASSESSMENT;  PRICE CHANGE;  PRICE CHANGES;  PRICE INCREASE;  PRIVATE PROPERTY;  PRODUCE;  PRODUCTION COST;  PROPERTY RIGHTS;  REAL INCOME;  REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS;  REGIONAL DIMENSION;  REGIONAL ECONOMY;  REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT;  REGIONAL IMPACTS;  REGIONAL INCOME;  REGIONAL INEQUALITY;  REGIONAL INPUT;  REMOTE REGION;  RETAIL;  RICE CULTIVATION;  RICE PRICE;  RICE PRICES;  RICE PROCESSING;  RICE PRODUCTION;  RURAL AREAS;  RURAL DWELLERS;  RURAL HOUSEHOLDS;  RURAL POOR;  SAVINGS;  SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL;  SPREAD;  SURPLUS;  TAX;  TEA;  TRADE LIBERALIZATION;  TRADE POLICY;  WAGES;  WORLD TRADE;  WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION;  Report; 

年份：

2010

出版地：

Washington,USA

语种：

English

摘要：

A 'bottom up' regional Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) model for Vietnam is constructed for 28 commodities and 8 regions (using a GSO input-output table for 2005). The model is used to analyze the recent dramatic increases in the world price of rice on the regional economy of Vietnam, and the Vietnamese policy response to limit exports. Although results show limited 'pro-poor' outcomes, the CGE model and a micro-simulation (using 2006 VHLSS - Vietnamese Household Living Standard Survey data) show that recent rice export quotas resulted in falls total rural savings as measured by the difference in total income less total production cost and consumption of rice. The structure of the paper is as follows. Section two provides the background and reviews existing studies in Vietnam that have tried to estimate the welfare impact of government policies in rice market. Section three describes the methods and data. The results from the CGE model and micro-simulation on household data are discussed in section four. Section five offer concluding remarks.