Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2013 : Growing Tensions in a Resilient Economy

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作者：

World Bank

来源地址：

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21967

关键词：

ACCOUNTING;  ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK;  AGGREGATE DEMAND;  AGRICULTURE;  ANNUAL GROWTH;  ARREARS;  ASSETS;  BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;  BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEFICIT;  BALANCE SHEETS;  BANK LENDING;  BANK LOANS;  BANKING SECTOR;  BANQUE DU LIBAN;  BASIS POINT;  BASIS POINTS;  BENEFICIARIES;  BILL;  BOND MARKET;  BOND YIELDS;  BUDGET DEFICIT;  BUFFERS;  BUSINESS CONFIDENCE;  CAPITAL GAINS;  CAPITAL INFLOWS;  CASH PAYMENT;  CENTRAL BANK;  CHECKS;  CIVIL SERVICE;  COMMERCIAL BANKS;  COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE;  COMPETITIVENESS;  CONFIDENCE INDEX;  CONSOLIDATION;  CONSUMER CONFIDENCE;  CONSUMERS;  CONSUMPTION DEMANDS;  CORE INFLATION;  CORPORATE PROFITS;  COST OF IMPORTS;  COST OF LIVING;  COUNTRY DEBT;  CREDIT RATING;  CREDIT RISK;  CURRENT ACCOUNT;  CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT;  CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS;  DEBT RATIO;  DEBT REDUCTION;  DEBT SERVICE;  DEBT STOCK;  DEBT STRUCTURE;  DEFICITS;  DEPOSIT;  DEPOSITS;  DERIVATIVES;  DISBURSEMENTS;  DISPOSABLE INCOME;  DISTORTIONS;  DOMESTIC CURRENCY;  DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY;  DOMESTIC INFLATION;  DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES;  DOMESTIC PRICES;  DOWNWARD PRESSURE;  ECONOMIC DEMAND;  ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS;  ECONOMIC GROWTH;  ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN;  EDUCATION SYSTEM;  EMERGING MARKET;  EMERGING MARKET COUNTRIES;  EMERGING MARKETS;  ENABLING ENVIRONMENT;  ENTREPRENEURSHIP;  EUROBOND;  EXCHANGE RATE;  EXCHANGE RATE RISK;  EXPENDITURE;  EXPENDITURES;  EXPORTERS;  EXTERNAL DEBT;  EXTERNAL FACTORS;  EXTERNAL INDEBTEDNESS;  FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE;  FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT;  FINANCIAL MARKET;  FINANCIAL MARKET PARTICIPANTS;  FINANCIAL MARKETS;  FINANCIAL SUPPORT;  FISCAL BALANCE;  FISCAL BURDEN;  FISCAL DEFICIT;  FISCAL POLICIES;  FISCAL POLICY;  FOREIGN CURRENCY;  FOREIGN EXCHANGE;  FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVE;  FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES;  FOREIGN INFLOWS;  GDP;  GOVERNMENT DEFICIT;  GOVERNMENT SPENDING;  GROWTH PERFORMANCE;  GROWTH RATE;  HOUSEHOLDS;  HOUSING;  HUMAN CAPITAL;  IMPORT;  IMPORT GROWTH;  IMPORTS;  INCOME GROUPS;  INCOME TAX;  INCOME TAXES;  INFLATION;  INFLATION EXPECTATIONS;  INFLATION RATE;  INFLATION RATES;  INFLATIONARY PRESSURES;  INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS;  INSURANCE;  INTEREST INCOME;  INTEREST PAYMENTS;  INTEREST RATE;  INTEREST RATE PAYMENTS;  INTEREST RATE SPREADS;  INTEREST RATES;  INTERNATIONAL INTEREST;  INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES;  INTERNATIONAL PRICES;  INTERNATIONAL RESERVES;  INVENTORIES;  INVENTORY;  INVESTMENT DECISION;  INVESTOR CONFIDENCE;  JOB CREATION;  LABOR FORCE;  LABOR MARKET;  LABOR MARKETS;  LABOR MOBILITY;  LAWS;  LIQUIDITY;  LIVING ADJUSTMENT;  LOCAL BUSINESSES;  LONG-TERM EXTERNAL DEBT;  M3;  MACROECONOMIC STABILITY;  MARKET CAPITALIZATION;  MARKET ENTRY;  MARKET SHARE;  MARKET YIELDS;  MATURITIES;  MIGRATION;  MINIMUM WAGE;  MONETARY POLICY;  MONEY SUPPLY;  MULTIPLIERS;  NATIONAL INCOME;  NET EXPORTS;  NOMINAL WAGES;  OUTPUT GAP;  PEG;  PENSION;  PENSION REFORMS;  PENSION SYSTEM;  PENSIONS;  PLEDGES;  POLICY RESPONSES;  POLITICAL INSTABILITY;  POVERTY REDUCTION;  PRICE INDEX;  PRIVATE BANKS;  PRIVATE CONSUMPTION;  PRIVATE INVESTMENT;  PRIVATE INVESTORS;  PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT;  PRODUCTION DISRUPTIONS;  PRODUCTIVITY;  PROFITABILITY;  PUBLIC DEBT;  PUBLIC FINANCES;  PUBLIC INVESTMENT;  PUBLIC SERVICES;  PURCHASING POWER;  RE-EXPORTS;  REAL ESTATE;  REAL GDP;  RECEIPTS;  REFUGEE;  REFUGEES;  REGISTRATION FEES;  REMITTANCES;  RESERVE ACCUMULATION;  RETURN;  RISK EXPOSURE;  RISK PERCEPTIONS;  SAFETY NET;  SAFETY NETS;  SAVINGS;  SHORT-TERM CAPITAL;  SHORT-TERM EXTERNAL DEBT;  SLOW GROWTH;  SLOWDOWN;  SOCIAL INSURANCE SYSTEM;  SOCIAL NETWORKS;  SOCIAL SAFETY NETS;  SPARE CAPACITY;  STOCK EXCHANGE;  STOCK MARKET;  STRUCTURAL REFORMS;  SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS;  SUPPLY SIDE;  SURPLUS;  T-BOND;  TAX;  TAX REVENUES;  TAX SYSTEM;  TOTAL DEPOSITS;  TOTAL EXPORTS;  TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT;  TOTAL IMPORT;  TOTAL REVENUE;  TRADE BALANCE;  TRADE DEFICIT;  TRADE UNIONS;  TRADING;  TRANSPORT;  TREASURY;  TREASURY BONDS;  TUITION;  UNCERTAINTY;  UNEMPLOYMENT;  UNEMPLOYMENT RATES;  UPWARD PRESSURE;  WEIGHTS;  YIELD CURVE;  YIELD SPREAD;  Report; 

年份：

2013

出版地：

Washington,USA

语种：

English

摘要：

The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. The political standoff combined with an escalating Syrian conflict hampered growth in 2012, and is projected to continue doing so through the first half of 2013. Economic growth in 2012 is estimated to have decelerated to 1.4 percent due to a weak second half of 2012 following a downturn in the security situation. The major fiscal expansion that took place in 2012 is creating fiscal challenges for 2013, particularly in the context of a promised increase in public salaries. The fiscal expansion, measured by the change in the central government s primary fiscal balance, reached a staggering 4.6 percentage points of GDP in 2012. The overall fiscal deficit reached 9.4 percent of GDP in 2012. Inflationary pressures rose despite tepid economic activity. Headline inflation accelerated notably in the second half of 2012. Core inflation has also been on an upward trend, reaching 5.3 percent by end-2012. Domestically, inflationary pressures can primarily be attributed to (i) increases in disposable income in early 2012 due to the increase in the minimum wage and public sector salaries cost of living adjustment; and (ii) a cumulative output gap that remains positive following above-potential growth in 2007-2010. The conflict in Syria, a country that is closely linked, both through historical, social and economic ties to Lebanon has created a humanitarian crisis of enormous scale. While Lebanon is to be commended for its openness to Syrian refugees, the conflict is severely and negatively impacting the Lebanese economy. The largest impact arises through the insecurity and uncertainty spillovers and touches at the heart of Lebanon s societal fabric.