Central African Republic - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis

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作者：

World Bank

来源地址：

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32581

关键词：

DEBT DISTRESS;  DEBT SERVICE BURDEN;  CONTINGENT LIABILITY;  PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT;  PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT;  EXTERNAL DEBT;  DEBT RELIEF;  Report;  Rapport;  Informe; 

年份：

2019

出版地：

Washington,USA

语种：

English

摘要：

The Central African Republic (C.A.R.) remains at high risk of external debt distress and overall high risk of debt distress under the revised Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF), unchanged from the 2018 DSA. Solvency indicators (the present values of the external public and publicly guaranteed debt-to-GDP and debt-to-exports ratios) remain below their relevant thresholds in the baseline scenario. However, liquidity indicators (debt service-to-exports and debt service-to-revenue ratios) breach their thresholds in the baseline scenario. Further considerations support the high-risk assessment: the debt indicators are sensitive to standard stress tests; macroeconomic projections are highly uncertain in a volatile security environment; and sizeable contingent liabilities, notably related to the large stock of unaudited potential domestic arrears and the limited financial information available on state-owned enterprises, could materialize. C.A.R.'s debt sustainability is also sensitive to a deterioration of the financing mix. A tailored scenario in which grant financing (of 2 percent of GDP) is replaced by concessional external debt-financing from 2021 onwards would worsen debt sustainability considerably. This shows that the government's investment program requires grant financing, with concessional debt financing to be considered in exceptional cases.