Mongolia Quarterly, October 2008

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作者：

World Bank

来源地址：

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/28196

关键词：

ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY;  ADMINISTERED PRICES;  AGGREGATE DEMAND;  AGRICULTURE;  ANNUAL GROWTH;  ARREARS;  BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;  BANKING SYSTEM;  BASE PRICE;  BILL;  BORDER PRICE;  CAPITAL ACCOUNT;  CAPITAL ADEQUACY;  CAPITAL INVESTMENT;  CASH TRANSFER;  CASH TRANSFERS;  COMMODITY;  COMMODITY PRICES;  CONSUMER CREDIT;  CONSUMER PRICE;  CONSUMER PRICE INDEX;  COPPER PRICE;  COPPER PRICES;  CORN PRICES;  CREDIBILITY;  CREDIT GROWTH;  CURRENT ACCOUNT;  CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT;  DIVIDEND;  DIVIDENDS;  DOMESTIC BANKS;  DOMESTIC CAPITAL;  DOMESTIC CREDIT;  DOMESTIC CURRENCY;  DOMESTIC ECONOMY;  DOMESTIC INFLATION;  DOMESTIC MACROECONOMIC POLICIES;  DOMESTIC PRICE;  DOMESTIC PRICES;  DOMESTIC SAVING;  ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS;  ECONOMIC GROWTH;  ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN;  ELASTICITY;  ENERGY PRICES;  EQUIPMENT;  EXCESS LIQUIDITY;  EXPANSIONARY FISCAL POLICY;  EXPENDITURE;  EXPENDITURES;  EXPORT EARNINGS;  EXPORT GROWTH;  EXPORT REVENUES;  EXPORTS;  FINANCIAL CRISIS;  FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS;  FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES;  FINANCIAL MARKETS;  FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE;  FINANCIAL SYSTEM;  FISCAL DISCIPLINE;  FISCAL POLICY;  FIXED EXCHANGE RATE;  FOOD PRICES;  FORECASTS;  FOREIGN ASSETS;  FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT;  FOREIGN EXCHANGE;  FOREIGN FINANCIAL MARKETS;  FOREIGN RESERVES;  GDP;  GLOBAL OUTPUT;  GOLD;  GOLD PRICES;  GOVERNMENT ACTION;  GOVERNMENT BUDGET;  GOVERNMENT CREDIT;  GOVERNMENT REVENUE;  GOVERNMENT REVENUES;  GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT;  HIGH INFLATION;  HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES;  HOLDING;  HOUSEHOLD INCOMES;  IMBALANCES;  IMMOVABLE ASSETS;  IMPORT;  IMPORTS;  INCOME TAX;  INCOME TAXES;  INFLATION;  INFLATION EXPECTATIONS;  INFLATIONARY IMPACT;  INFLATIONARY PRESSURE;  INFLATIONARY PRESSURES;  INSTRUMENT;  INSURANCE;  INTEREST PAYMENTS;  INTERNATIONAL BEST PRACTICE;  INTERNATIONAL PRICES;  INTERNATIONAL RESERVES;  INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS;  INVENTORIES;  INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES;  JOB CREATION;  LABOR MARKET;  LENDING PORTFOLIO;  LIQUIDITIES;  M1;  Report;  Rapport;  Informe; 

年份：

2008

出版地：

Washington,USA

语种：

English

摘要：

The recent worsening of the financial crisis in the United States and the contagion to the world real economy are adding pressures for Mongolia to address macroeconomic imbalances. In particular, the fall in copper prices and the shortage of liquidities worldwide will imply a slowdown of global economic growth, lower copper prices, and reduced foreign direct investment (FDI). The implications for Mongolia, a larger current account deficit, much lower government revenues, and continued large investment needs, will pose significant policy challenges for the new government to maintain growth while lowering inflation. Fiscal tightening will be a key to prevent inflation from permanently affecting expectations and to reduce the current account deficit. This includes no further increase in public wages, no further increase in universal cash transfers, and a prioritized investment program limited to what the absorptive capacity of the economy can bear. Fiscal space should be kept for a targeted social safety net to protect the most vulnerable. Reducing inflation is always painful, but the slower the authorities react, the more protracted the process is, with deeper impact in economic activity, employment and poverty.