India Economic Update, March 2012

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作者：

World Bank

来源地址：

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27071

关键词：

ACCOUNTING;  AGGREGATE DEMAND;  AGRICULTURE;  AUCTIONS;  BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;  BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CRISIS;  BANK CREDIT;  BANK LOANS;  BANKING SECTORS;  BASE YEAR;  BASIS POINTS;  BENCHMARK;  BIDS;  BOND ISSUANCE;  BORROWING COSTS;  BROAD MONEY;  CAPITAL ACCOUNT;  CAPITAL ACCOUNT RESTRICTIONS;  CAPITAL ACCOUNT TRANSACTIONS;  CAPITAL FLOWS;  CAPITAL GAINS;  CAPITAL INFLOW;  CAPITAL INFLOWS;  CAPITAL SHARE;  CDS;  CENTRAL BANK;  CENTRAL BANK BILLS;  COMMERCIAL BANK;  COMMERCIAL BANKS;  COMMODITY PRICE;  COMMODITY PRICES;  COMPETITIVENESS;  COMPLIANCE GAPS;  CONSUMER DURABLES;  CONSUMER GOODS;  CONSUMER PRICE INDEX;  CORPORATE SAVINGS;  CREDIT DEFAULT;  CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS;  CREDIT GROWTH;  CREDIT RATINGS;  CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT;  DEBT;  DEBT ISSUES;  DEFICITS;  DEVALUATION;  DEVELOPING COUNTRIES;  DIRECT INVESTMENT;  DISBURSEMENT;  DISINFLATION;  DOLLAR PRICES;  DOMESTIC CREDIT;  DOMESTIC MARKET;  ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT;  ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS;  ECONOMIC EXPANSION;  ECONOMIC GROWTH;  ECONOMIC POLICIES;  ECONOMIC RESEARCH;  EMERGING ECONOMIES;  EMERGING MARKET;  EMERGING MARKET COUNTRIES;  EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES;  EMERGING MARKETS;  ENABLING ENVIRONMENT;  ENFORCEMENT MECHANISM;  EQUITY FINANCING;  EQUITY FLOWS;  EQUITY INVESTMENT;  EQUITY INVESTMENTS;  EQUITY MARKETS;  EXCESS LIQUIDITY;  EXCHANGE CONTROLS;  EXCHANGE RATE;  EXPENDITURE;  EXPORT GROWTH;  EXPORTERS;  EXPORTS;  EXTERNALITIES;  FINANCIAL CRISES;  FINANCIAL CRISIS;  FINANCIAL SECTOR;  FINANCIAL SYSTEM;  FISCAL AUTONOMY;  FISCAL DEFICIT;  FISCAL DEFICITS;  FISCAL POLICIES;  FIXED INVESTMENT;  FORECASTS;  FOREIGN CAPITAL;  FOREIGN CURRENCY;  FOREIGN EXCHANGE;  FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET;  FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS;  FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES;  FOREIGN INVESTMENT;  FOREIGN INVESTORS;  GDP;  GDP PER CAPITA;  GLOBAL TRADE;  GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS;  GOVERNMENT BANK;  GOVERNMENT BOND;  GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS;  GOVERNMENT BONDS;  GOVERNMENT DEFICIT;  GOVERNMENT FINANCES;  GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION;  GOVERNMENT REVENUE;  GROSS MARGIN;  GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS;  GROWTH PROJECTIONS;  GROWTH RATE;  HOLDING;  HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS;  HUMAN CAPITAL;  INCOME;  INCOME GROUPS;  INCOME LEVEL;  INCOME TAX;  INDEX NUMBERS;  INFLATION;  INFLATION INDICES;  INFLATION RATE;  INFLATION RATES;  INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS;  INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT;  INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS;  INSURANCE;  INSURANCE PREMIUM;  INTEREST RATES;  INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL;  INTERNATIONAL MARKET;  INVENTORIES;  INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO;  INVESTMENT RATE;  INVESTOR CONFIDENCE;  INVESTOR PERCEPTIONS;  LEVEL OF INFLATION;  LEVEL PLAYING FIELD;  LEVIES;  LEVY;  LIQUIDITY;  LIVING STANDARDS;  LOAN;  LOCAL CURRENCY;  LONG-TERM CAPITAL;  M1;  M3;  MARKET FAILURES;  MARKET INTEREST RATE;  MARKET PRICES;  MONETARY POLICY;  MONEY SUPPLY;  NATIONAL SAVINGS;  OIL PRICE;  OIL PRICES;  OPEN MARKET;  OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS;  OVERHEAD COSTS;  OVERVALUATION;  PER CAPITA INCOME;  PER CAPITA INCOMES;  POLITICAL ECONOMY;  POLITICAL ECONOMY OF REFORM;  PORTFOLIO;  PORTFOLIO FLOWS;  PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT;  PORTFOLIO INVESTMENTS;  PRIME LENDING RATE;  PRIVATE CREDITORS;  PRIVATE INVESTMENT;  PRODUCTION FUNCTION;  PRODUCTIVITY;  PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES;  PROFIT MARGIN;  PROFIT MARGINS;  PUBLIC INVESTMENT;  PUBLIC INVESTMENTS;  PUBLIC SAVINGS;  PUBLIC STOCKS;  PURCHASING POWER;  REAL EXCHANGE RATE;  REAL EXCHANGE RATES;  REAL GDP;  REAL INCOME;  REAL INTEREST;  REAL INTEREST RATE;  REAL INTEREST RATES;  REGULATORY FRAMEWORK;  REMITTANCES;  REPO;  REPO RATE;  RESERVE;  RESERVE REQUIREMENTS;  RESERVES;  RETURN;  RETURNS;  SAVINGS RATE;  SECONDARY MARKET;  SECURITIES;  SETTLEMENT;  SHORT-TERM CAPITAL;  SOVEREIGN BOND;  STATISTICAL ANALYSES;  STOCKS;  SURPLUS LABOR;  SYSTEMS ANALYSIS;  TAX;  TAX COLLECTION;  TAX EXEMPTIONS;  TAX RATES;  TAX REVENUES;  TAX SYSTEM;  TAXATION;  TOTAL COSTS;  TOTAL DEBT;  TRADE BALANCE;  TRADE DEFICIT;  TRADE REGIME;  TRADING;  TRANSPARENCY;  TREASURIES;  TROUGH;  TURNOVER;  UNDERVALUATION;  UNEMPLOYMENT;  WAGES;  WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX;  WHOLESALE PRICES;  Report;  Rapport;  Informe; 

年份：

2012

出版地：

Washington,USA

语种：

English

摘要：

In 2011, India's economic growth has slowed to below 7 percent and the stock markets mirrored the weakening economic conditions, but recovered somewhat in early 2012. Industrial sector output growth briefly slipped into negative territory. On the demand side, fixed investment and consumption growth slowed. India's exports were growing very strongly through 2011 despite the worsening economic conditions in Europe, which continued to be India's most important export market. The balance of payments continued to be in surplus during April-September 2011, but the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reserves declined by a small amount since then. The rupee nevertheless depreciated by 20 percent between August and December, before recovering somewhat in early 2012. Macroeconomic policies presented a mixed picture: the central government is likely to miss the ambitious target for fiscal consolidation it had set in the FY2011-12 budget by about one percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Slippages are due to lower-than-expected revenues and increasing outlays on subsidies, which had been given low budgetary allocations in anticipation of strong policy changes, which failed to materialize. In India, the slowdown in GDP growth witnessed over the last two quarters is likely to extend into the coming fiscal year because of the weakness in investment. In FY2011-12 and FY2012-13, GDP growth is forecast to reach around 7-7.5 percent, a significant slowdown from the 9-10 percent growth in the run-up to the global financial crisis. The slowdown is at least partly caused by structural problems (power projects facing delays due to the lack of coal and gas feedstock, mining and the telecom sectors hit by corruption scandals, unavailability of land and infrastructure).