Afghanistan in Transition : Looking Beyond 2014

• 查看报告

作者：

World Bank

来源地址：

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27224

关键词：

ACCOUNTABILITY;  AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;  AGRICULTURE;  AID DEPENDENCE;  AID DEPENDENCY;  AID EFFECTIVENESS;  AID FINANCING;  AID FLOWS;  AID PROGRAMS;  BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;  BASE YEAR;  BOUNDARIES;  BUDGET DEFICITS;  CAPACITY BUILDING;  CASH CROP;  CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES;  CIVIL LIBERTIES;  CIVIL WAR;  COLLECTIVE ACTION;  COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT;  COMMUNITY LEADERS;  COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS;  CONFLICT;  CONFLICTS;  CORRUPTION;  CORRUPTION INDICATOR;  COUNTERINSURGENCY;  CRIME;  CRIMINALITY;  CRITICAL IMPORTANCE;  DEPENDENCY RATIOS;  DESERTION;  DESERTIONS;  DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE;  DEVELOPMENT FINANCING;  DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS;  DIPLOMACY;  DIRECT INVESTMENT;  DRUG;  DRUGS;  ECONOMIC BOOM;  ECONOMIC COOPERATION;  ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT;  ECONOMIC GROWTH;  ECONOMIC OUTLOOK;  ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE;  ELECTIONS;  ETHNIC DIVERSITY;  EXTERNAL FINANCING;  FIGHTING;  FINANCIAL AID;  FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT;  FOREIGN AID;  FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT;  GAPS;  GDP;  GDP DEFLATOR;  GDP PER CAPITA;  GENDER GAPS;  GOVERNMENT CAPACITY;  GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS;  GOVERNMENT RESPONSE;  GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT;  GROSS NATIONAL INCOME;  GROWTH RATES;  HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE;  HEALTH SERVICES;  HOUSEHOLD INCOME;  HUMAN CAPITAL;  HUMAN DEVELOPMENT;  HUMAN RIGHTS;  HYPERINFLATION;  IMF;  INFLATION;  INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS;  INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENT;  INTERNATIONAL AID;  INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY;  INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS;  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT;  INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE;  INTERNATIONAL MILITARY FORCES;  INTERNATIONAL SECURITY;  KINSHIP;  LARGE CITIES;  LAW INDICATOR;  LIFE EXPECTANCY;  LIVE BIRTHS;  LOCAL GOVERNANCE;  MACROECONOMIC STABILITY;  MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS;  MILITARIZATION;  MILITARY EXPENDITURE;  MILITARY INTERVENTION;  MORTALITY;  MORTALITY RATE;  NATIONAL AGENDA;  NATIONAL GOVERNMENT;  NATIONAL INCOME;  NATIONAL PRIORITY;  NATIONALISM;  NATIONS;  NEGOTIATIONS;  NEUTRALITY;  OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE;  PEACE;  PEACEKEEPING;  POLICY MAKERS;  POLITICAL AUTHORITY;  POLITICAL ECONOMY;  POLITICAL ECONOMY OUTCOMES;  POLITICAL INSTABILITY;  POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS;  POLITICAL LEADERS;  POLITICAL PARTIES;  POLITICAL POWER;  POLITICAL PROCESS;  POLITICAL RIGHTS;  POLITICAL STABILITY;  POLITICAL SYSTEMS;  POOR PERFORMANCE;  POST CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION;  PRIMARY EDUCATION;  PRIMARY SCHOOL;  PRIORITIES;  PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH;  PROGRESS;  PUBLIC HEALTH;  PUBLIC SERVICE;  PUBLIC SERVICE DELIVERY;  RAPID POPULATION GROWTH;  RATES OF POPULATION;  REAL GDP;  RECESSION;  RECONCILIATION;  RECONSTRUCTION;  REFUGEES;  REGULATORY QUALITY;  REHABILITATION;  REMITTANCES;  RESPECT;  ROAD;  RULE OF LAW;  RURAL AREAS;  RURAL DEVELOPMENT;  SECURITY FORCES;  SERVICE DELIVERY;  SIDE EFFECTS;  SOCIAL SERVICES;  SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS;  SOVEREIGNTY;  STRUCTURAL CHANGE;  SUSTAINABILITY;  TACTICS;  TAKEOVER;  TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE;  TECHNICAL COOPERATION;  TORTURE;  TRANSPARENCY;  UNDP;  UNEMPLOYMENT;  UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM;  VALUE ADDED;  VIOLENCE;  VIOLENT CONFLICT;  WAGES;  WARS;  WEAPONS;  WORKING POPULATION;  WORLD DEVELOPMENT;  WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS;  WORLDWIDE GOVERNANCE INDICATORS;  YOUNG MEN;  YOUTH;  Report;  Rapport;  Informe; 

年份：

2012

出版地：

Washington,USA

语种：

English

摘要：

Afghanistan will experience a major security and development transition over the next three years. At the Kabul and Lisbon Conferences in 2010, NATO and the Afghan government agreed that full responsibility for security would be handed over to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) by the end of 2014. Development progress since 2001 has been mixed. Some major achievements have been recorded, such as rapid economic growth (with large fluctuations), relatively low inflation (after hyperinflation in the 1990s), better public financial management, and gains in basic health and education. Key social indicators, including life expectancy and maternal mortality, have improved markedly (admittedly from an extremely low base), and women are participating more in the economy. Yet in other respects, particularly governance and institution building, the country has fared less well, and many indicators have worsened in recent years. Afghanistan remains one of the world's least developed countries, with a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of only $528 in 2010/11. More than a third of the population live below the poverty line, more than half are vulnerable and at serious risk of falling into poverty, and three?quarters are illiterate. This report is intended to be comprehensive, so it also discusses the broader historical and political economy context of development in the country, and how Afghanistan compares with other countries that have undergone their own transitions over the past 30 years. This report is based on data collected from various sources in 2011, and its analysis and findings therefore comprise the team's considered assessment using the best available information available by the end of that year. In addition, projections of future trends in Afghanistan inevitably are subject to uncertainty and reflect any weaknesses in the underlying data. Thus the report's projections should be seen as subject to further adjustments and improvements as better and more recent information become available. This report is presented in two volumes. Volume one is a stand?alone Overview which highlights the main findings, projections, and recommendations of the study. Volume two consists of five chapters presenting the detailed empirical background, analytical findings, projections, and recommendations of the study, along with a concluding chapter and three technical appendices.