Armenia Economic Update, Spring 2015 : Accelerating Reforms, Increased Uncertainty

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作者：

World Bank Group

来源地址：

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22072

关键词：

CURRENCY MISMATCHES;  TARIFFS;  GROWTH RATES;  MONETARY POLICY;  DEFICIT;  RISKS;  HOLDING;  BASIS POINTS;  OIL PRICE;  NPL;  ECONOMIC GROWTH;  DEPOSITS;  FREE TRADE AGREEMENT;  INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY;  MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT;  INTEREST;  DEPRECIATION;  IMPORT;  GOVERNMENT SPENDING;  IMPORT TARIFF;  SLACK;  REMITTANCE;  EXCHANGE;  ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS;  BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;  CONSUMER GOODS;  MARKET PRESSURES;  LABOR FORCE;  TAX COLLECTION;  REVENUES;  FISCAL POLICY;  WELFARE;  RENEGOTIATION;  BORROWERS;  SLOWDOWN;  TAX;  CONSUMPTION GROWTH;  BOND YIELDS;  EXTERNAL TRADE;  INFLATION;  SUPPLY SIDE;  BILLS;  SAFETY NETS;  TRADE AGREEMENTS;  BUDGET;  CENTRAL BANK;  MATURITY;  CUSTOMS DUTIES;  EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE;  LABOR MARKET;  TRADE BALANCE;  ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN;  CURRENCY;  EXPORT GROWTH;  POLICY RESPONSES;  CURRENT ACCOUNT;  INCOME GROWTH;  INFLATIONARY PRESSURES;  IMPORT DEMAND;  TRADING;  MONETARY FUND;  MARKETS;  DEBT;  PRIVATE INVESTMENT;  RETURN;  BUDGET DEFICIT;  STRUCTURAL REFORMS;  IMPORTS;  TRADE POLICY;  DIRECT INVESTMENT;  LOANS;  RESERVES;  TRADE AGREEMENT;  DEBT SERVICE;  GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT;  FINANCE;  TAXES;  BANKING SECTOR;  FISCAL DEFICIT;  EXPENDITURE;  GOVERNMENT SECURITIES;  EQUITY;  INVESTORS;  CONSUMPTION;  INTEREST PAYMENTS;  GOOD;  EXTERNAL DEMAND;  INTERNATIONAL RESERVES;  BUFFER;  UNEMPLOYMENT RATE;  FINANCIAL CRISIS;  COMPETITIVENESS;  FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT;  TREASURY BILLS;  TRADE DEFICIT;  FOREIGN INVESTMENT;  DEMAND;  BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEVELOPMENTS;  SAFETY NET;  AGGREGATE DEMAND;  ECONOMY;  EXPENDITURES;  CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT;  CURRENCY MARKETS;  SHARES;  REAL EXCHANGE RATE;  COUPON RATE;  MARKET;  FOREIGN EXCHANGE;  SECURITIES;  PUBLIC DEBT;  TREASURY;  DOMESTIC DEMAND;  BILL;  CORE INFLATION;  INTERESTS;  TAX CODE;  CURRENCY DEPRECIATION;  GOODS;  MONETARY CONDITIONS;  GROWTH RATE;  INVESTMENT;  BOND;  EUROBOND;  SHORTFALLS;  COMMERCIAL BANKS;  SHARE;  INVESTMENT CLIMATE;  POVERTY;  TARIFF;  SUPPLY;  GLOBAL DEMAND;  COUPON;  UNCERTAINTY;  REVENUE;  PRIVATE INVESTMENTS;  ACCOUNT DEFICIT;  PRIVATE CONSUMPTION;  EXTERNAL DEBT;  INVESTMENTS;  CONSUMER PRICE INDEX;  EXCHANGE RATE;  DEBT SERVICING;  REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE;  FOOD PRICES;  REMITTANCES;  PUBLIC SPENDING;  CAPITAL INVESTMENT;  PRICE INDEX;  TRADING PARTNERS;  WEIGHTS;  TRADE REGIME;  NONPERFORMING LOANS;  DOLLAR VALUE;  CONSOLIDATION;  HUMAN DEVELOPMENT;  DEBT MATURITY;  Report;  Rapport;  Informe; 

年份：

2015

出版地：

Washington,USA

语种：

English

摘要：

Armenias economic growth remained resilient in 2014. Output expansion slowed to 3.4 percent in 2014, relative to 3.5 percent in the previous year. On the supply side, while services particularly transport and telecoms), agriculture, and manufacturing performed well, construction, mining, and energy made negative contributions to output growth. On the demand side, net exports were the main contributor to growth, offsetting weak private consumption and negative private investment. However, by the last quarter, Russias economic slowdown and the steep depreciation of the ruble began to depress remittances, FDI inflows, and exports. Few jobs were created during the year, and the unemployment rate reached to 17.6 percent in 2014. A weak labor market, combined with slower emigration and return migration from Russia, are likely to have undermined growth in the incomes of the poor. Declining remittances and higher inflation in the last few months of 2014 reinforced these trends. Poverty at US$2.5/day was 30.2 percent in 2014, still above the levels recorded in the period leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. Fiscal policy continued to be prudent throughout the year, and monetary tightening responded to the currency depreciation. Developments in Russia will adversely affect economic growth in 2015, underscoring the needfor Armenia to press ahead with structural reforms.