Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2015 : The Economy of New Drivers and Old Drags

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作者：

World Bank

来源地址：

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21761

关键词：

ACCOUNTING;  AGGREGATE INVESTMENT;  AGRICULTURAL SECTOR;  AGRICULTURE;  ARREARS;  ASSET RATIO;  BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;  BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEFICIT;  BALANCE SHEET;  BANK DEPOSIT;  BANK POLICY;  BANKING SECTOR;  BANKING SYSTEM;  BASIS POINTS;  BENEFICIARY;  BORROWING;  BUDGET DEFICIT;  BUDGET SURPLUS;  BUSINESS ACTIVITY;  BUSINESS OWNERS;  CAPITAL FLOW;  CAPITAL FORMATION;  CAPITAL FUNDS;  CAPITAL GOODS;  CAPITAL INFLOW;  CAPITAL INFLOWS;  CENTRAL BANK;  COMMERCIAL BANK;  COMMERCIAL BANK LOANS;  COMMERCIAL BANKS;  COMMERCIAL LOANS;  COMPETITIVENESS;  CONFIDENCE INDEX;  CONFIDENCE INDICES;  CONSUMER CONFIDENCE;  CONSUMERS;  CORRUPTION;  CREDIT RISK;  CREDIT SCHEME;  CURRENT ACCOUNT;  CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE;  CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT;  DEBT;  DEBT OUTSTANDING;  DEBT SERVICE;  DEBT SERVICING;  DEFICITS;  DEPENDENT VARIABLE;  DEPOSIT;  DEPOSITS;  DIRECTION OF TRADE;  DIVERSIFICATION;  DOLLAR RATE;  DOLLAR RATES;  DOMESTIC DEBT;  DOMESTIC DEMAND;  DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES;  DURABLES;  ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS;  ECONOMIC ACTIVITY;  ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS;  ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT;  ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE;  ECONOMIC SITUATION;  ECONOMIC TRANSACTIONS;  EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE;  ELASTICITY;  ELASTICITY OF DEMAND;  EMERGING MARKET;  EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES;  EMPLOYERS;  EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES;  EQUIPMENT;  EQUITY INVESTMENT;  EUROBOND;  EXCHANGE RATE;  EXCHANGE RATE STABILITY;  EXPATRIATE;  EXPATRIATES;  EXPENDITURE;  EXPENDITURES;  EXPORT PERFORMANCE;  EXPORTER;  EXPORTERS;  EXPORTS;  EXPOSURE;  EXTERNAL SHOCKS;  FAMILIES;  FAMILY INCOME;  FEDERAL RESERVE;  FINANCIAL CRISIS;  FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS;  FINANCIAL MARKET;  FINANCIAL MARKET PARTICIPANTS;  FINANCIAL MARKETS;  FINANCIAL SECTOR;  FINANCIAL SERVICES;  FINANCING NEEDS;  FISCAL BALANCE;  FISCAL DEFICIT;  FISCAL POLICY;  FISCAL POSITION;  FIXED CAPITAL;  FOOD PRICES;  FOREIGN CAPITAL;  FOREIGN EXCHANGE;  FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES;  FOREIGN INVESTMENTS;  FOREIGN INVESTORS;  FOREIGN RESERVES;  FUNDING SOURCE;  GOLD;  GOVERNMENT FINANCE;  GOVERNMENT FUNDING;  GRAVITY MODEL;  GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION;  GROWTH PROJECTIONS;  GROWTH RATE;  GROWTH RATES;  GUARANTOR;  HOLDING;  HOST COUNTRIES;  HOST COUNTRY;  HOUSEHOLDS;  HOUSING LOAN;  IMPORT;  IMPORTS;  INCOME GROWTH;  INCOME LEVEL;  INFLATION;  INFLATION RATE;  INSTALLMENT;  INSTITUTIONAL REFORM;  INTEREST INCOME;  INTEREST PAYMENTS;  INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIAL;  INTEREST RATES;  INTERNATIONAL INTEREST;  INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES;  INTERNATIONAL RESERVES;  INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS;  INTERNATIONAL TRADE;  INVESTMENT CLIMATE;  INVESTOR CONFIDENCE;  ISSUANCES;  JOB OPPORTUNITIES;  KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY;  LABOR MARKET;  LABOR MARKETS;  LEADING INDICATORS;  LEGAL REFORMS;  LENDER;  LENDER OF LAST RESORT;  LEVERAGE;  LIQUID ASSET;  LIQUID ASSETS;  LOAN;  LOANS TO BUSINESSES;  LOCAL CURRENCY;  LOCAL RATE;  M3;  MACROECONOMICS;  MARKET CAPITALIZATION;  MARKET DYNAMICS;  MATURITY;  MONETARY POLICY;  MONEY SUPPLY;  MULTIPLIER EFFECT;  NON-PERFORMING LOANS;  NPL;  OIL PRICES;  OUTPUT GAP;  PEG;  PERSONAL INCOME;  PHYSICAL CAPITAL;  PORTFOLIO;  POSITIVE EFFECTS;  POTENTIAL OUTPUT;  PRIVATE SECTOR LOANS;  PRODUCTIVE ASSETS;  PROFITABILITY;  PUBLIC DEBT;  PUBLIC FINANCE;  PUBLIC FINANCES;  PUBLIC INVESTMENT;  REAL ESTATE;  REAL GDP;  REAL INTEREST;  REAL INTEREST RATE;  RECEIPTS;  REFUGEE;  REFUGEES;  REMITTANCES;  REPAYMENT;  REPAYMENT CAPACITY;  RESERVES;  RETURN;  RISK AVERSION;  RISK PREMIUM;  SAVINGS;  SETTLEMENT;  SHORT-TERM LIQUIDITY;  SLOWDOWN;  SMALL BUSINESSES;  SOVEREIGN DEBT;  SOVEREIGN RISK;  START-UPS;  STOCK EXCHANGE;  STOCKS;  STRUCTURAL REFORMS;  SUPPLY SIDE;  T-BILL;  T-BILLS;  TAKEOVER;  TAX;  TAX RATE;  TAX REVENUES;  TELECOMMUNICATIONS;  TOTAL DEPOSIT;  TOTAL DEPOSITS;  TOTAL EXPORT;  TOTAL EXPORTS;  TOTAL IMPORTS;  TRADE DEFICIT;  TRADE IMPACT;  TRADING;  TRANCHES;  TRANSPARENCY;  TREASURY;  TREASURY BILLS;  TREASURY BONDS;  TURNOVER;  TURNOVER DATA;  UNEMPLOYMENT;  UNEMPLOYMENT RATE;  VENTURE CAPITAL;  VENTURE CAPITAL FUNDS;  WAGES;  WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS;  Report;  Rapport;  Informe; 

年份：

2015

出版地：

Washington,USA

语种：

English

摘要：

The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Lebanon continues to be impacted by the domestic political stalemate and regional turmoil, particularly along its border with Syria. Economic activity picked up in the second half of 2014. Stronger economic performance and lower oil prices pushed real GDP growth to an estimated 2.0 percent in 2014, compared to 0.9 percent in 2013. One-off cosmetic and unsustainable measures rather than policy actions helped improve the fiscal balance in 2014. We estimate the overall fiscal deficit to have declined by 2.3 percentage points. Declining imports lead an improvement in the current account balance. In 2014, a fall in merchandize imports induced a 4.4 pp reduction in the current account deficit to a still-elevated 22.2 percent of GDP. This trend is projected to continue in 2015 helped by falling oil prices and a depreciating euro, Headline inflation plummeted from 2.7 percent in 2013 to 1.9 percent in 2014 and is expected to remain tempered over the medium term. Lebanon s economy continues to be exposed to external shocks. The border with Syria is increasingly menacing as coordinated attacks by ISIS and Al Nusra are being launched more frequently from their bases in Syria. Inefficiencies in power generation impose sizable macroeconomic costs on Lebanon. The Lebanese electricity sector has been underperforming for decades with considerable socio-economic costs. The macroeconomic impact has been massive.