Tajikistan Economic Update, Fall 2015 : A Moderate Slowdown in Economic Growth Coupled with a Sharp Decline in Household Purchasing Power

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作者：

World Bank Group

来源地址：

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23334

关键词：

LIVING STANDARDS;  DEBT SOURCE;  TARIFFS;  CONTINGENT LIABILITIES;  MONETARY POLICY;  DEFICIT;  DEPOSIT;  BASIS POINTS;  NPL;  ECONOMIC GROWTH;  EQUIPMENT;  ACCOUNTING;  DEPOSITS;  BROAD MONEY;  FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT;  STOCK;  INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY;  PERVERSE INCENTIVES;  MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT;  INTEREST;  POST-CRISIS PERIOD;  PUBLIC INVESTMENTS;  EXPECTATIONS;  INTEREST RATE;  REMITTANCE;  PRIVATE CREDIT;  EXCHANGE;  BANKING SYSTEM;  BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;  ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS;  CONSUMER GOODS;  RESERVE REQUIREMENTS;  LIQUIDITY;  LABOR FORCE;  DEVELOPING COUNTRIES;  DOMESTIC MARKET;  REPAYMENTS;  DEBT- SERVICE;  REVENUES;  CAPITAL ADEQUACY;  INCENTIVES;  LOAN;  ADMINISTRATIVE CONTROLS;  TAX;  REAL WAGES;  RESERVE;  CREDITORS;  INFLATION;  PENSION;  CREDITOR;  INFORMATION ASYMMETRIES;  SAFETY NETS;  ENABLING ENVIRONMENT;  BUDGET;  CENTRAL BANK;  MATURITY;  ECONOMIC ACTIVITY;  LABOR MARKET;  OIL PRICES;  MATURITY MISMATCHES;  OIL;  CURRENCY;  LOAN RATE;  POPULATION GROWTH;  INCOME GROWTH;  CAPITAL FORMATION;  INCOME INEQUALITY;  CONVERSIONS;  EXCHANGE RATES;  TRADING;  LABOR PRODUCTIVITY;  INTEREST RATES;  CREDIT RISKS;  MARKETS;  DEBT;  PRIVATE INVESTMENT;  HOUSEHOLD INCOME;  RETURN;  INFLATION RATE;  FORESTRY;  LENDERS;  FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS;  ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE;  LOANS;  DIRECT INVESTMENT;  RESERVES;  CAPITAL INVESTMENTS;  GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT;  METALS;  FINANCIAL SYSTEM;  COMMODITY PRICE;  RETURN ON ASSETS;  FINANCE;  FOREIGN CURRENCY;  FOOD PRODUCTION;  PUBLIC INVESTMENT;  TAXES;  BANKING SECTOR;  FISCAL DEFICIT;  EXPENDITURE;  RESOURCES;  DEBT LEVELS;  UNEMPLOYMENT;  EQUITY;  TRANSACTION;  MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT;  INVESTORS;  PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH;  CONSUMPTION;  HUMAN CAPITAL;  WAGES;  CLIMATE CHANGE;  VALUES;  BUDGET SURPLUS;  FINANCIAL CRISIS;  TURNOVER;  CREDIT ACCESS;  PENSIONS;  FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT;  CREDIT;  FIXED INVESTMENT;  PURCHASING POWER;  DEMAND;  CPI;  PRUDENTIAL REGULATIONS;  NATIONAL INCOME;  FARMING HOUSEHOLDS;  INVESTMENT PROJECTS;  CONTRACT;  FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE;  EXPENDITURES;  ASSET QUALITY;  CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT;  MARKET;  ENVIRONMENT;  PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS;  PUBLIC DEBT;  FINANCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE;  INFLATION RATES;  CURRENCIES;  ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT;  TRADE;  LAND;  GOODS;  SECURITY;  NONPERFORMING LOAN;  NATIONAL BANK;  INVESTMENT;  HUMAN RESOURCES;  SHARE;  INVESTMENT CLIMATE;  POVERTY;  REVENUE;  EXTERNAL DEBT;  INVESTMENTS;  RISK MANAGEMENT;  LENDING;  CONSUMER PRICE INDEX;  CREDIT GROWTH;  CREDIT CULTURE;  EXCHANGE RATE;  FISCAL DISCIPLINE;  REMITTANCES;  CAPITAL INVESTMENT;  LABOR MARKETS;  LIABILITIES;  COMMODITY PRICES;  ARREARS;  CREDIT INSTITUTIONS;  PRICES;  DEVELOPMENT BANK;  SWAP;  NONPERFORMING LOANS;  ECONOMIC CONDITIONS;  HUMAN DEVELOPMENT;  Report;  Rapport;  Informe; 

年份：

2015

出版地：

Washington,USA

语种：

English

摘要：

Tajikistan's economy exceeded expectations during the first six months of 2015 despite a challenging external environment. According to official data, GDP growth slowed only moderately from 6.7 percent in the first half of 2014 to 6.4 percent year on year (y/y) in the first half of 2015, even as remittances from Russia fell, global demand weakened, and prices for the country's key export commodities such as aluminum and cotton dropped significantly. Domestic factors continued to drive growth, and both the construction and industrial sectors expanded as the economy's focus shifted from consumption to investment. The state budget surplus reached 1 percent of GDP, and the external public debt to GDP ratio dropped to below 20 percent. The sharp decline in remittances is limiting the growth of household consumption and could threaten the sustainability of recent gains in poverty reduction and shared prosperity. According to the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT), remittances dropped by 32 percent (y/y), in US dollar terms during the first six months of 2015. Although the decline was less dramatic (about 18 percent) in Tajikistan somoni (TJS) terms, income losses were much larger than implied by GDP statistics. Falling remittances, limited employment creation outside the public sector, and rising prices are slowing the rate of poverty reduction. Moreover, the lack of well-targeted social programs leaves households vulnerable to economic shocks.