Taking Stock, July 2016 : An Update on Vietnam's Recent Economic Developments

• 查看报告

作者：

World Bank

来源地址：

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24922

关键词：

economic outlook;  economic reform;  demographics;  elderly;  pensions;  Brexit;  drought;  textile exports;  fiscal policy;  labor productivity;  economic growth;  Report;  Rapport;  Informe; 

年份：

2016

出版地：

Washington,USA

语种：

English

摘要：

Global economic activity is showing little sign of improvement in 2016, but growth in the emerging East Asia and the Pacific remains resilient. In Vietnam economic activity moderated in the first half of 2016, mainly due to the impact of a severe drought on agricultural production and slower industrial growth. GDP is projected to grow by 6 percent in 2016 with inflationary pressures contained and the current account in balance. The fiscal deficit is projected to remain high this year but then tighten over the medium term, reflecting the government's fiscal consolidation plans. The baseline outlook is subject to external and domestic risks. The speed of demographic transition in Vietnam poses new challenges for policymakers, employers and citizens, some of them urgent. There are also significant challenges for healthcare and aged/long-term care systems. The health delivery system will require a fundamental reorientation towards more emphasis on primary care and reduced reliance on hospital care in order to manage the increase in non-communicable diseases exacerbated by aging. There will need to be reforms of human resource policies and programs for the health sector, requiring new graduate and post-graduate training programs for general practitioners, as well as retraining of existing cadres. Reorientation to primary care and case management will also benefit from reforms in provider payment mechanisms for health services, strengthened gate-keeping modalities to control unnecessary hospital usage and admissions, and improved coordination of care across levels of the health system. There will also be a need for efficiency improvements in areas such as pharmaceutical procurement and prescription practices, as well as greater focus on managing conditions of age such as dementia. Growing demand for aged care will also require proactive public policy, with an emphasis on home- and community-based care and defining of appropriate roles for the state, the private sector, communities and households.