Mexico agribusiness reports Q3/2019 Includes 5-year forecasts to 2022

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作者：

Business Monitor International Ltd

年份：

2019

学科分类：

F373.14

出版地：

London

总页数：

73

语种：

English

信息来源：

BMI Research

摘要：

Key View Key View: With the future of trade between the US, Mexico and Canada far more clear than in previous updates, our view on the Mexican agribusiness sector is looking increasingly positive. We have seen a number of positive revisions to our production and consumption forecasts through to the end of our five-year forecast period in 2023. We have revised up our forecasts for wheat productioa com production and consumption, pork production, and beef production and consumption. Our positivity towards the livestock sector is furthered by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's pledge to make Mexico self-sufficient in beef, chicken and pork, among other agricultural products, posing upside risks to our long-term production forecasts. We expect domestic production to rise modestly and at a faster rate than domestic consumption, which is being driven by income growth and a rising national appetite. With the sugar surplus increasing, Mexico will need to increasingly look beyond the US - owing to its reduced shipping quota - to export its oversupply in 2019 and beyond. We are positive in our view of the coffee market as the effects of the roya rust fungus fade and healthy crop yields are bolstered as improving farming techniques become the norm. We believe that Mexico will remain reliant on dairy imports： however, the growth in demand may slow in the latter years of the forecast as healthy alternatives to dairy fat are encouraged. On the demand side, rising per capita disposable incomes will continue to deliver consumption-side growth more broadly, but we hold to our opinion that competitiveness remains an issue for the Mexican agricultural sector as a whole, particularly in the grains, livestock and sugar sub-sectors. We also see the successful re-negotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, now the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement as a particularly salient issue over the coming quarters.