Niger - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis

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作者：

World Bank

来源地址：

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32562

关键词：

PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT;  DEBT SERVICE BURDEN;  CONTINGENT LIABILITY;  DEBT DISTRESS;  PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT;  SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS;  RISK ASSESSMENT;  MACROECONOMIC PROJECTION;  EXTERNAL DEBT;  Report;  Rapport;  Informe; 

年份：

2019

出版地：

Washington,USA

语种：

English

摘要：

Niger's risk of external and overall public debt distress is rated "moderate" as in the previous DSA. While all thresholds are observed in the baseline, the PV of PPG external debt-to-exports ratio breaches its threshold under stress test scenarios. Debt-carrying capacity continues to be rated "medium." The analysis shows that Niger has limited space to accommodate negative shocks and remains vulnerable to adverse developments of its exports. The DSA is predicated on the government continuing to implement its reform program: fiscal consolidation; structural reforms, including revenue mobilization efforts; contain expenditures and improve spending quality; and timely completion of several large-scale projects, in particular the construction of a pipeline for crude oil exports. Identified weaknesses call for further strengthening of debt management, including by broadening the coverage of public debt, prioritizing concessional borrowing, and strengthening private-sector development to support economic diversification and mitigate the risks associated with commodity price fluctuations.