Public Agriculture Research Spending and Future U.S. Agricultural Productivity Growth: Scenarios for 2010-2050

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英文名称：

Public Agriculture Research Spending and Future U.S. Agricultural Productivity Growth: Scenarios for 2010-2050

作者：

Paul Heisey; Sun Ling Wang; Keith Fuglie

工作单位：

USDA's Economic Research Service

来源地址：

https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=42851

关键词：

Agricultural research;  public research;  economic benefit analysis;  productivity;  total factor productivity; 

年份：

2011

出版地：

Washington, DC, USA

总页数：

6 pp

语种：

English

摘要：

By 2050, global agricultural demand is projected to grow by 70-100 percent due to population growth, energy demands, and higher incomes in developing countries. Meeting this demand from existing agricultural resources will require raising global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) by a similar level. The rate of TFP growth of U.S. agriculture has averaged about 1.5 percent annually over the past 50 years, but stagnant (inflation-adjusted) funding for public agricultural research since the 1980s may be causing agricultural TFP growth to slow down. ERS simulations indicate that if U.S. public agricultural R&D spending remains constant (in nominal terms) until 2050, the annual rate of agricultural TFP growth will fall to under 0.75 percent and U.S. agricultural output will increase by only 40 percent by 2050. Under this scenario, raising output beyond this level would require bringing more land, labor, capital, materials, and other resources into production.