Romania agribusiness report Q1/2018 includes 5-year forecasts to 2021-2022

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作者：

Business Monitor International Ltd

年份：

2018

学科分类：

F354.24

出版地：

London

总页数：

72

语种：

English

信息来源：

BMI Research

摘要：

BMI Industry View BMI View: With no updates to our production or consumption forecasts for the Romanian agribusiness sector this quarter, we maintain our view that grains have high growth potential due to their competitiveness and exposure to the Middle East and Asia. In addition, the sectors exports will benefit from the abundant supply of wheat and the expected reduction of neighbouring Ukraine's export capacity of the crop. However, we caution that our forecasts for the grains sector remain subject to progress in the 2018 CAP reform process. We are maintaining our European agricultural production forecasts for now, but could revise them downwards should there be new and onerous additions to the current regulatory environment. Meanwhile, we believe that the country's poultry sub-sector will continue to perform well across our forecast period to 2020/21, outperforming the rest of the livestock sector in terms of both production and consumption, owing to strong demand from Romania's population, and strengthening in terms of production by an average rate of 2.0% y-o-y across our forecast period. This view was reflected in the upwards revision we made for each full-y ear period between 2016/17 and 2020/21 for Romania's poultry output in our Q217 update. Elsewhere, milk production will see limited growth after the EU quota removal in March 2015, while the sugar sector will moderately benefit in terms of production, which we revised upwards in our Q317 quarterly update, following the removal of quotas in 2017,