Papua New Guinea Economic Update, January 2019 : Slower Growth, Better Prospects

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作者：

World Bank Group

来源地址：

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31245

关键词：

ECONOMIC GROWTH;  ECONOMIC OUTLOOK;  RISKS;  FISCAL TRENDS;  MONETARY POLICY;  TRADE;  PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT;  JOB CREATION;  BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT;  INCLUSIVE GROWTH;  SHARED PROSPERITY;  Report;  Rapport;  Informe; 

年份：

2019

出版地：

Washington,USA

语种：

English

摘要：

The PNG economy has become increasingly concentrated in petroleum-and-gas-related activities since 2014, raising its vulnerability to external shocks, including commodity-price shocks and natural disasters. In recent months, however, the authorities have taken decisive action to promote greater diversification of the economy. Ongoing reforms to strengthen the monetary and exchange rate policy and framework are expected to improve business confidence and increase private investment and growth in the non-resource economy. Measures include addressing the FX shortage, managing the liquidity effects of the use of FX to clear the FX orders backlog, working on greater exchange rate flexibility, considering options for strengthening the interest-rate transmission mechanism, and enhancing modeling capacity in the Bank of Papua New Guinea (BPNG). In this context, the government and the BPNG will need to ensure regular, transparent, and consistent communication with all stakeholders to minimize the risk of confusion and market disruption. Papua New Guinea's medium-term economic outlook is relatively sanguine, underpinned by further large-scale resource projects. Real GDP growth is forecast to rebound to about 5 percent in 2019, primarily driven by a return to full annual production in the extractive sector. In the years after, growth is estimated to ease to its current potential of 3-4 percent a year, until planned investments in LNG and mining projects kick in. Future large-scale investment in the resource sector appears likely, with plans to double LNG production and develop new gold, copper, and silver reserves. With increased FX inflows into the economy, the current pressure on the exchange rate may reverse, adversely affecting the competitiveness of the non-resource economy. To facilitate broad-based, inclusive, and sustainable development, the government will need to focus more on investing in human capital and strengthening the business environment to spur private sector development, as elaborated in the World Bank's Systematic Country Diagnostic and summarized in the special focus section of this report.