Romania agribusiness report Q3/2018 includes 5-year forecasts to 2021-2022

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作者：

Business Monitor International Ltd

年份：

2018

学科分类：

F354.24

出版地：

London

总页数：

62

语种：

English

信息来源：

BMI Research

摘要：

BMI Industry View BMI View: With our existing forecasts across the Romanian agricultural sector consolidated this quarter, we remain broadly positive in our view ofthe Romanian agricultural sector. We have maintained our view that grains production has high growth potential due to their competitiveness and exposure to the Middle East and Asia. The sector's exports will benefit from the abundant supply ofwheat and the expected reduction of neighbouring Ukraine's export capacity ofthe crop. However, we caution that our forecasts for the grains sector remain subject to progress in the CAP reform process, which is taking shape in 2018. In terms of European agricultural production, we are maintaining forecasts for now. but could revise them downwards should there be new and onerous additions to the current regulatory environment Meanwhile, we believe that Romania's poultry sub-sector will continue to perform well across our forecast period to 2021/2022 outperforming the rest ofthe livestock sector in terms of both production and consumption owing to strong demand from Romania's population and strengthening in terms of output by an average rate of 2.2%y-o-y across our forecast period. Milk production will see limited growth after the EU quota removal in March 20 75 while the sugar sector will moderately benefit in terms of production following the removal of quotas in Europe in 2017. Meanwhile, our bullish view on sugar consumption, which we are forecasting to grow by an average annual rate of 2.3% through to 2022, faces growing downside risk owing to the threat of an additional tax on beverages with a high content of sugar-something which the Romanian Parliament is currently debating a draft bill for.