Tanzania agribusiness report Q2/2017 includes 5-year forecasts to 2020

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作者：

Business Monitor International Ltd

年份：

2017

学科分类：

F342.54

出版地：

London

总页数：

76

语种：

English

信息来源：

BMI Research

摘要：

BMI Industry View BMI View: Our forecasts for the Tanzanian agribusiness sector remain largely unchanged from our last quarterly update, however thanks to the extension of our five-year forecast period out to 2021 we have seen a shift in several key average annual growth forecasts across the sector. I particular, we point to a return to positive growth for both corn output and demand, a turnaround from projections of an average annual contraction in growth forecast previously. We continue to see the Tanzanian coffee industry struggling over the medium term, but renewed government support for the sector has provided hope that it can recover over the longer term. The com industry, meanwhile, will continue to benefit from solid demand from domestic and export markets, while rising income levels will stimulate rice consumption. The Tanzanian sugar sector will see limited production growth in the next few years, largely due to the fact that Tanzania scores poorly on productivity measures compared to its regional neighbours. As a result, a growing share of the country's growing sugar demand is met by imports at a time when we have revised downwards our forecasts for sugar consumption starting in 2016/17 and for each full-year period through to the end of our forecast period in 2020/21. In addition, we believe that while sugar prices will be supported across 2017, they are likely to take a move lower over the medium term as, in our view, they already reflect the tight balance between supply and demand in the global sugar market.