Romania agribusiness report Q2/2018 includes 5-year forecasts to 2021-2022

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作者：

Business Monitor International Ltd

年份：

2018

学科分类：

F354.24

出版地：

London

总页数：

50

语种：

English

信息来源：

BMI Research

摘要：

BMI Industry View BMI View: % remain broadly positive on the Romanian agricultural sector, even after revisions in our production forecasts in this update. Despite a downward revision for both com and barley output through to the end of our newly extended forecast period to 2022, we maintain our view that grains have high growth potential due to their competitiveness and exposure to the Middle East and Asia. The sector's exports will benefit from the abundant supply ofwheat and the expected reduction of neighbouring Ukraine's export capacity of the crop. However, we caution that our forecasts for the grains sector remain subject to progress in the 2018 CAP reform process. In terms of European agricultural production, we are maintaining forecasts for now. but could revise them downwards should there be new and onerous additions to the current regulatory environment Meanwhile, we believe that the country's poultry sub-sector will continue to perform well across our forecast period to 2021/2022 outperforming the rest of the livestock sector in terms of both production and consumption, owing to strong demand from Romania's populatioa and strengthening in terms of production by an average rate of 2.2% y-o-y across our forecast period. Milk production will see limited growth after the EU quota removal in March 20 75, while the sugar sector will moderately benefit in terms of production which we revised upwards in our Q317 quarterly update, following the removal of quotas in 2017.