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Cameroon agribusiness report Q2/2017 includes 5-year forecasts to 2020
- 作者：
- Business Monitor International Ltd
- 年份：
- 2016
- 学科分类：
- F343.84
- 出版地：
- London
- 总页数：
- 74
- 语种：
- English
- 信息来源：
- BMI Research
- 摘要：
- BMI Industry View BMl View: After several revisions in our last quarterly update, our forecasts for production and consumption in Cameroon's agribusiness sector remain largely unchanged this quarter. Of note, however, is the fact that we have made some revisions in our historical data - for wheat consumption and coffee production in particular - owing to USDA data changes. Since our last update we have also extended our forecast period for production and consumption out to 2020/21, providing further clarity for our views and resulting in revision of our annual average growth forecast for nearly all of the agribusiness subsectors that we follow. The biggest revisions resulting from the extension of the forecast period have come in the form of a contraction in average growth of corn production to 0.8%, down from 1.8% previously; a downgrade in average coca production across our forecast period from 3.8% previously to 3.0% in this update; and an increase in both coffee output and demand, with averages rising from 2.6% to 3.0% and from 1.2% to 1.6%, respectively, since our last quarterly update. On the back of these revisions, we continue to hold the view that cocoa remains Cameroon's most important cash crop. We hold a positive view of the country's cocoa production as it has ample room for growth and increasingly stable access to export markets. Over the remainder of our newly extended forecast period to 2020/21, we believe improved production techniques will give cocoa farmers new opportunities to sell greater quantities of beans on international markets. More broadly, we see growth in the production and consumption of all key soft commodities in Cameroon, including sugar and coffee. Increasing government support and the ratification of the new trade deal with the EU will both help to maintain investment and growth in these crops.
