A system, method and non-transient computer readable medium for predicting hypoglycemic risk in patients with diabetes following moderate exercise. A system may include a digital processor; and an exercise module configured to generate a hypoglycemia risk signal with a hypoglycemia prediction algorithm and to determine a hypoglycemia risk state with a classifier algorithm that classifies the hypoglycemia risk signal to identify an actionable hypoglycemia risk state based on a predefined threshold.