In some examples, processing circuitry of a medical device system determines, for each of a plurality of patient parameters, a difference metric for a current period based on a value of a patient parameter determined for the current period and a value of the patient parameter determined for an immediately preceding period, and determines a score for the current period based on a sum of the difference metrics for at least some of the plurality of patient parameters. The processing circuitry determines a threshold for the current period based on scores determined for N periods that precede the current period, compares the score for the current period to the threshold, and determines whether to generate an alert indicating that an acute cardiac event of the patient, e.g., ventricular tachyarrhythmia, is predicted, and/or deliver a therapy configured to prevent the acute cardiac event, based on the comparison.
