The invention provides methods for analyzing cardiovascular disease risk. Methods of the invention provide a probability of an individual developing cardiovascular disease based on parameters including blood levels of sdLDL-C, ApoA-I in α-1 HDL, and Lp(a) along with information about the patients age and history of blood pressure treatment, smoking, and diabetes. Methods of the invention do not rely on standard risk factor measurements, such as CRP, total cholesterol, body mass index, weight, triglycerides, and the like.