A system and method of identifying a change in an eye to detect a probability of disease progression is provided. A database of eye examination maps of different eyes is employed, with each eye examination map including visual field information. Maps of eyes from the database are then selected that show no change between their examinations. Measurement data from the selected eye maps is then generated by collecting measurements made at visual field locations from each selected eye map. Simulated eye examination maps are then generated by randomly sampling a value from the measurement data. A global index is then employed to generate a population of possible global index values for the simulated eye examination maps. The simulated eye examination maps and the corresponding global index values are used to provide a measure of the probability of disease progression.
