An insulin device configured to control insulin dosage adapts a basal rate profile, using a sensor configured to produce a blood glucose level measurement data, and detect changes of the blood glucose level measurement data over time. A processor is configured to receive the blood glucose level measurement data and a basal rate profile. A basal rate set point corresponds to an insulin delivery reference for a nominal blood glucose. The insulin device includes an insulin dispensing valve controlled by the processor to administer insulin in accordance with the received basal rate profile. The processor is configured to update the basal rate set point over a time period based on both an assessment of at least one of a risk of hyperglycemia and a risk of hypoglycemia from historical blood glucose data, and patterns of actions taken by the insulin device to mitigate glycemic risk during the time period.
